Monday, March 28, 2011

Two Weeks

Two weeks remain, and still only five teams have clinched playoff spot, 4 in the East, 1 in the West. I only have an hour elft to write this post, so I'm not going to get as in depth as my last standings analysis, but will give a brief rundown of the playoff race and team news. I will consider teams that are more than 7 points out of 8th place to be out of the playoff race.

EASTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Philadelphia Flyers
 Record: 45-20-10, 100 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 5-1-4
 Streak: Lost 2
 Playoff Status: clinched
Still going strong, but not as strong as they had been. Last night they were booed off the ice by the Philly fans after losing a close 2-1 game to Boston. Need a spark for a playoff boost.

2. Washington Capitals
 Record: 44-22-10, 98 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 8-2-0
 Streak: Won 1
 Playoff Status: clinched
On a serious hot streak. Alex Ovechkin and Jason Arnott close to returning, and Mike Green is recovering as well. Could be very dangerous in the playoffs.

3. Boston Bruins
 Record: 42-23-10, 94 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 4-4-2
 Streak: Won 1
 Playoff Status: clinched
Starting to play better after a recent slide. Need to keep up strong play and get hot going into playoffs.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins
 Record: 45-23-8, 98 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 8-2-0
 Streak: Won 4
 Playoff Status: clinched
Continue to play surprisingly well in the absence of Sid and Geno. Crosby is practicing again, but still no timetable for return. Extremely hot right now, but 4 straight wins have all been in shootouts. Might not be so dangerous in playoffs, where OT is continuous.

5. Tampa Bay Lightning
 Record: 40-24-11, 91 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 3-3-4
 Streak: Won 1
 Playoff Status: in the hunt, in good shape
Thanks to their hot start, the Lightning are still in 5th despite recent struggles. Need to seriously turn their game around soon or will face an early exit in the postseason. The turnaround begins with Steven Stamkos, who is in the middle of his worst dry spell of the season, and just dropped to second in the league in goals for the first time since Sidney Crosby was still in the lineup for Pittsburgh. He is a game-changer. If he is scoring, the Lightning are winning. They are 11 points ahead of 9th place Carolina.

6. Montreal Canadiens
 Record: 40-29-7, 87 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 4-6-0
 Streak: Lost 3
 Playoff status: in the hunt, in good shape
After enduring injury struggles all season, the Canadiens continued to shock the hockey world by winning games. But after a crushing 7-0 defeat to the Bruins, the Canadiens seem to have lost their game. They have plenty of talent and the tools to make a run, but they need to improve their play drastically with the playoffs so close. They are 7 points ahead of 9th place Carolina.

7. New York Rangers
 Record: 41-30-5, 87 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 8-1-1
 Streak: Won 1
 Playoff Status: in the hunt, in good shape
Riding a recent hot streak, the Rangers have put some more distance between themselves and Carolina. With strong defensive play and the brick wall that is King Henrik Lundqvist, the Rangers are poised to rocket further up the standings. They are also 7 points ahead of Carolina.

8. Buffalo Sabres
 Record: 39-28-9, 85 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 6-3-1
 Streak: Won 3
 Playoff Status: in the hunt, in good shape
If the Sabres keep playing strong hockey, the will have the eighth position locked up. They have a 5 point lead on Carolina with 7 games left apiece, so they should be in if they don't stumble

9. Carolina Hurricanes
 Record: 35-30-10, 80 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 4-5-1
 Streak: Lost 1
 Playoff Status: in the hunt, not looking good
With mediocre play of late coupled with the recent Sabres and Rangers surges, the Canes playoff chances are getting slimmer. They have 7 games left and are 5 points out of the playoffs.

10. Toronto Maple Leafs
 Record: 34-32-10, 78 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 5-4-1
 Streak: Lost 1
Had a surprising run recently, but have since cooled off and with 6 games left and a 7 point deficit, they are all but eliminated.

The rest of the East:
11. Atlanta Thrashers. 9 points out with 7 games left. Nearly insurmountable.
12. New Jersey Devils. 12 points out with 7 games remaining. Basically impossible.
13. New York Islanders. 15 points out with 6 games remaining. Mathematically impossible.
14. Florida Panthers. 16 points out with 6 games remaining. Mathematically impossible.
15. Ottawa Senators. 17 points out with 6 games remaining. Mathematically impossible.

West coming soon.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Better Late Than Never

I haven't posted in a week, and with the season winding down and my latest analyses of the standings so recent, I need something to talk about. Somehow I managed to refrain from this subject when it happened, but I just can't stay silent anymore. Chara. Pacioretty. I am doing a project on the Montreal vs. Boston coverage of this event, and after reading so much aggravating discussion of the hit, I am severley frustrated.

Generally, I try my absolute best to stay impartial, and I am trying to approach this the same way. You may say being a Bruins fan makes me unfit to make an ubiased comment on this event, and may argue with anything I say for that reason. But I consider myself very open to consider all the angles no matter who the players or teams are that I am talking about. I agreed with suspensions to Bruins this years, Brad Marchand and Danile Paille. I can step aside and realize a bad hit, or a good hit, when I see one, no matter who the culprit or the victim. I have taken the brunt of some flack for my opinions on this hit from a lot of my friends. But I sincerely stand by my opinion and hope that my readers can take a minute to actually consider the angles of what I am saying, instead of immediately judging my words based on your existing position.

I believe this was a very unfortunate hit. But I do not consider this a dirty hit on the part of Chara. Both players carry some of the responsibility for this event, but judging by the existing rules, Chara's hit was legal. Everyone is calling for Chara's head, but two heads for one does not help Pacioretty. Pacioretty claimed he was disgusted that the league took no action, citing the fact that the players need to take notice and not do this.

Meanwhile, the league HAS taken notice and has taken appropriate action, discussing the dimensional changes that need to be made to NHL arenas in order to eliminate the dangers of the stanchion between the benches. Had the hit taken place anywhere else on the ice, Pacioretty is fine. One can argue that this is no excuse: Chara is a veteran and should use better judgment at that area of the ice. At that speed, however, it's tough to be so aware of your surroundings.

Speaking of awareness, many believe this was Chara's retaliation for a previous incident between the two players. Was Chara annoyed with Pacioretty still? Probably, but I doubt so much to the point that he would intentionally try to injure a player. Aside from some fights in the moment, Chara is not a dirty player. If he wants to get someone back, he will do it with a big, clean hit.

And speaking of intention, some argue that Chara used his hand to guide Pacioretty's head into the stanchion, and he showed no remorse because he didn't even look back to see if he was okay. To this I say the following:
In terms of the hand, no foul on Chara. He was pushing off on Pacioretty for some leverage, pretty much everyone does that a bit. You can say no that's not always the case, but when you're riding someone along the boards and intend to keep going without losing speed, you're going to push off. Leaning into a guy without your hand in that situation costs you balance, and therefore speed. Then you might say, yeah, but players pushing off don't push off on someone's head. To this, I give two numbers. 6'9" and 6'2". Chara has seven inches on Pacioretty, natrually, if he extends his arm, it's going to be at level with Pacioretty's head. I see no intent in this extension. Chara wasn't even looking at Pacioretty, and probably had no idea where exactly his arm was extending into. Likewise, Chara didn't look back to see the damage of his hit because he didn't realize what had happened; he was not looking.

I also mentioned that both players carry some responsibility. Some may wonder how I could think this is Pacioretty's fault, but watch the replay. on the slow motion, run it a few times over and watch closely. Right before contact, Pacioretty jumps. He tries to squeeze by between Chara and the boards and avoid the hit. Now off balance, his upperbody is easily pushed back by Chara, and over the boards, into the stanchion. Had Pacioretty leaned into the hit, he would still be in the lineup.

Additionally, I'd like to point out that to the Canadiens fans who think Bruins fans are defending Chara because of the Savard and Bergeron incidents that we did not throw beers at Brent Johnson or Antero Niittymaki on the bench. But maybe we're just not passionate enough.

My opinion on the legality aside, this was a very unfortunate event and I wish Max Pacioretty a speedy and successful recovery.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Wild West

WESTERN CONFERENCE:
This Conference ain't big enough for the 12 of us. But seriously....
There are 15 teams in each Conference, and of these, only 8 make the playoffs. There are 12 teams that could make the playoffs, same as the East. The difference is how incredibly close the race is here; 3rd place and 11th place or separated by only 9 points. For a while now, this has been a Conference where a team could be in 12th place one night, and then in 4th a night later. Any team not based out of Detroit or Vancouver pretty much needs to play their best hockey of the year from now till season's end to guarantee a playoff berth, and it's quite possible that all 5 teams in the Pacific Division could make the playoffs. Teams will need to play especially well against this division to try to make room for themselves in the postseason.When virtually every game from now until the playoffs is a game-in-hand between two clubs fighting for a playoff spot, you can expect a crazy finish to this season.

1. Vancouver Canucks (Points: 99, Games Left: 12, Streak: Won 5, Record in Last 10 Games: 7-3-0)
playoffs: safe
The Canucks are a not only the clear winners of their division, but they are also the clear leaders of the Conference, and likely the League. They are virtually unstoppable this season, and continue to impress despite a massive hole in their blue line. With full health, the Canucks boast 3 of the league's leading scorers, one of the league's strongest defenses, an elite goaltender, and an outstanding young back-up. The Canucks have all the tools to engineer a Stanley Cup victory, but plenty of number one team's have failed to take home the sports world's greatest chalice. The Canucks have been consistent all year long and show no signs of slowing down. They are pretty much locks for the President's Trophy this year. They are equally deadly at home and on the road, and have 6 games left for each.

2. Detroit Red Wings (90, 13, Won 2, 4-4-2)
playoffs: safe
The Red Wings are one of only two teams in their Conference who I can safely say will make the playoffs, and with 8 points separating them and the Blackhawks, they are also one of only two teams in the league who I can safely say will win their Division (barring a monumental collapse, of course). Year in and year out the Red Wings are impressive, and now that their lineup has returned to health, they are as dangerous as ever. They have plenty of playoff experience and are always a threat to take home the Cup. They have 8 home games and 5 road games still to play. They are good anywhere, but are particularly outstanding on the road.

3. San Jose Sharks (86, 13, NR Loss, 7-1-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
As will be stated several times in this post, the Pacific Divsion is ridiculously close. Pacific teams hold the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th seeds at the moment, and Anaheim is only 2 points out of 8th. Every one of these teams could make the playoffs. Or potentially only 2. Each of these teams needs to play their best hockey of the season from now until the final whistle, as points are sorely needed and the Pacific Division is jam-packed with games-in-hand from now until mid-April. Not even the Sharks are safe. They currently hold the top spot in the division thanks to a recent surge, and if they keep up their strong play, they will keep their spot. But with so many teams breathing down each other's necks, nobody is truly safe until April 11. The Sharks have one of the biggest stockpiles of fearsome scorers in the league, with a top line of Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, and Dany Heatley, as well as strong secondary scorers Joe Pavelski, Ryane Clowe, Devin Setoguchi, and rookie standout Logan Couture. With last year's Cup winner Antti Niemi between the pipes, the Nabakov era is over in San Jose, as they hope to end a decade of playoff disappointment. They have 7 remaining home games and 6 games left away from the Shark Tank. Amazingly, their last 8 games are against Pacific Division team, as well as 9 of these last 13 games. They play each of their divisional rivals twice, plus a third game against Phoenix. If the Sharks go on a tear for the rest of the season, they could put some serious distance between them and their divisonal competition.
Key games: 3/14 @ Chicago, 3/15 @ Dallas, 3/17 vs Minnesota, 3/23 vs Calgary, 3/24 @ Los Angeles, 3/26 @ Phoenix, 3/31 vs Dallas, 4/2 vs Anaheim, 4/4 vs Los Angeles, 4/6 @ Anaheim, 4/8 @ Phoenix, 4/9 vs Phoenix

4. Los Angeles Kings (83, 13, Won 3, 7-2-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
With the trade deadline acquisition of Dustin Penner powering an already potent offense, the Kings have moved into 4th place and look to be in fine shape. Or they would, if not for the 8 teams biting at their tails. In most seasons, a team in fourth this late in the seasons would be very close to clicnhing a playoff berth. But this year, the Western Conference is packed like sardines and the smallest slip could make or break any team's season. If the Kings continue their current tear, they should hold their ground in the standings and may go deep in the playoffs. They have 6 20-goal forwards in Penner, Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, Ryan Smyth, Jarret Stoll, and Anze Kopitar, a solid defense anchored by young blueliners Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson as well as former Stanley Cup-winning Penguin Rob Scuderi, and an outstanding goaltender in Jonathan Quick. A better home team, the Kings play 8 of their final 13 games at the Staples Center, and face divisional rivals 7 more times, including each of their last five games. These last 5 games will be as important to the entire rest of the division as it will be to the Kings. They will face the Ducks 3 more times and the Sharks 2 more times.
Key games: 3/15 @ Nashville, 3/19 vs Anaheim, 3/21 vs Calgary, 3/24 vs San Jose, 3/31 @ Vancouver, 4/2 vs Dallas, 4/4 @ San Jose, 4/6 vs Phoenix, 4/8 @ Anaheim, 4/9 vs Anaheim

5. Phoenix Coyotes (83, 12, Won 2, 4-4-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
Like a lot of teams in the Western race, the Coyotoes recently put together an impressive streak. But they have been average since then and if not for their 8-game winning streak, would be a lot further down the standings. They need something to spark their team. Maybe that lies in the coach; Dave Tippett was last year's coach of the year. Hopefully he can inspire some fire in the Coyotes, or they'll find themselves watching games instead of playing them come April. 7 of their remaining 12 games are at home, including a 6-game home-stand. 5 of their last 6 games are against fellow closely-packed Pacific Division teams, including 3 against current division leader San Jose. That final stretch is going to be crucial for not for every team in that division.
Key games: 3/15 @ Calgary, 3/18 @ Vancouver, 3/20 vs Chicago, 3/24 vs Columbus, 3/26 vs San Jose, 3/29 vs Dallas, 4/6 @ Los Angeles, 4/8 vs San Jose, 4/9 @ San Jose

6. Dallas Stars (82, 13, Lost 1, 6-2-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
After a few down seasons, the Stars found themselves leading their division earlier this season. Brad Richards went down with an injury and the Stars faded fast. Now they seem to have righted the ship and recently moved from a sub-8 position to 4th place, only to drop down to 6th when they were leapfrogged in a loss to the Kings. The best thing the Stars can do is to ignore the standings and keep playing their game. With the proximity of temas in the Conference, positions in the standings are likely to swap several times a night, and the Stars seem to have found their game recently. If they can keep this going, they should have a playoff berth, but the seed could be anywhere from 3rd to 8th. They have 6 remaining home games, and 7 remaining games against divisional opponents, including a road trip that hits each divisional rival city once. This could be a huge factor in who makes the playoffs, and what seeds they get, as each of these five teams jostles for not only a playoff spot, but the division title.
Key games: 3/15 vs San Jose, 3/17 vs Chicago, 3/10 vs Philadelphia, 3/23 vs Anaheim, 3/26 @ Nashville, 3/29 @ Phoenix, 3/31 @ San Jose, 4/2 @ Los Angeles, 4/3 @ Anaheim, 4/5 vs Columbus, 4/10 @ Minnesota

7. Chicago Blackhawks (82, 13, NR Loss, 7-1-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
After a strong run that included and 8-game winning streak and a rise to 4th place, the Blackhawks find themselves back in 7th and only 2 points ahead of 9th place less than a week later. Just goes to show how tight this playoff race is. The Blackhawks have turned it on at the right time, led by young Captain Jonathan Toews. Toews is the hottest player in the league right now; he has 12 goals and 31 points in his last 20 games, and yesterday tied his career high of 69 points with 13 games to go in the season. Corey Crawford has been a surprise in net this year, but the rookie has been worked heavily lately, which could work against the Hawks should they make the playoffs, but that didn't seem to phase Antti Niemi much last year. If the Hawks continue their recent surge, they could have home-ice advatadge in the first round. 6 of their remaining 13 games are at home in front of fans hungry for a Cup repeat. They have 3 games reamining against division-leading rival Detroit.
Key games: 3/14 vs San Jose, 3/17 @ Dallas, 3/20 @ Phoenix, 3/26 vs Anaheim, 3/28 @ Detroit, 3/29 @ Boston, 4/1 @ Columbus, 4/3 vs Tampa Bay, 4/5 @ Montreal, 4/8 @ Detroit, 4/10 vs Detroit

8. Calgary Flames (81, 11, Lost 2, 5-4-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
The Flames crawled out from the depths of the Western Conference with an impressive streak over the past few months, but have cooled off a bit recently and are only in 8th place by 1 point. They will need to keep the fire of the last two months alive if they want to keep their newfound playoff spot. They have strong defense and goaltending as well as a decent offense and have all the tools they need to win games. As long as they don't burn out from their long climb into the top 8, they should make the playoffs, where they could be very dangeous. They still have 5 home games and 6 road games to play. The biggest thing working against them now is that they only have 11 games left in a Conference where you need all the points you can get.
Key games: 3/15 vs Phoenix, 3/20 @ Anaheim, 3/21 @ Los Angeles, 3/23 @ San Jose, 3/30 vs Anaheim, 4/9 vs Vancouver

9. Nashville Predators (80, 13, Won 2, 4-4-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
After slipping a bit, the Predators are starting to string a few wins together and currently sit 1 point out of 8th place. Barry Trotz is a great coach, and always manages to get a solid seasonal performance out of a mediocre roster. There is definitely some talent on the Predators, but there are no huge superstar names that jump out at you, and the Predators will need to keep their team effort strong if they are to make the playoffs. They look to be in good shape, but as is the case with every team it seems right now, they will need to play their best hockey of they year in this final stretch. One huge advantadge lays in favor of the Predators for this final stretch: they are a better home team, and 10 of their remaining 13 games are in Nashville, and the only three road games are against the hot-but-beatable Sabres, the pitiful Avalanche, and the fading Blues. With this good of a schedule remaining, the Predators may have a leg up on their large pack of competition. If they do make the playoffs, don't expect them to go very far.
Key games: 3/15 vs Los Angeles, 3/17 vs Boston, 3/19 vs Detroit, 3/20 @ Buffalo, 3/24 vs Anaheim, 3/26 vs Dallas, 3/29 vs Vancouver, 3/2 vs Detroit, 3/8 vs Columbus

10. Anaheim Ducks (79, 13, Lost 1, 5-4-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
After strong consistent play for a while, the Ducks have cooled off slightly, but are still in good shape with only a 2-point margin between them and the 8th spot. They are currently the only Pacific Division team not in a playoff spot, but just one win would tie them with Clagary for 8th place. The looming question mark that remains is still Jonas Hiller. If he can get healthy, the Ducks have a much better shot at putting together a goodenough run to claim a playoff berth, and perhaps even go deep into the postseason. But with a tandem of notoriously inconsistent goaltenders in Ray Emery and Dan Ellis as well as a blue line that is more skilled offensively than defensively, the Ducks will need to focus on playing good team defense and back-checking if they are to keep winning games. They are a better home team and have 6 of 13 games remaining in Anaheim. 7 remaining games are against divisional opponents: 3 against the Kings, and two apiece against the Sharks and Stars. When all five teams in your division are in contention, this frequency of divisional matchup could make or break the Ducks. If they win enough of these games, they could find themselves not only making the playoffs, but taken home-ice advantadge by stealing the 3rd seed as the Pacific Division champs.
Key games: 3/19 @ Los Angeles, 3/20 vs Calgary, 3/23 @ Dallas, 3/24 @ Nashville, 3/26 @ Chicago, 3/30 @ Calgary, 4/2 @ San Jose, 4/3 vs Dallas, 4/6 vs San Jose, 4/8 vs Los Angeles, 4/9 @ Los Angeles

11. Minnesota Wild (77, 13, Lost 2, 4-5-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
Though in 11th, the Wild are only 4 points out of 8th place right now. As with any team from their spot all the way up to 3rd place, they have a great shot at making the playoffs, but walk, or rather skate, a razor's edge from now until all 1230 games are in the books. They have struggled of late, and need to turn that around immediately if they want to stay alive. There are far too many teams in contention to have even the tiniest slip this late in the game, and the Wild may have already dug themselves into too deep of a hole with their recent skid. They are not a strong scoring team, yet have one of the best power plays in the league. Generally a defensively-minded team, they are strong on the back end and have a solid goaltender in Niklas Backstron. If they can be more dangerous when playing even strength, they could be a formidable opponent for any team. But if they keep losing games, they will miss out on the playoffs. They have 7 games left at the Xcel energy Center and 6 games elsewhere. With 2 games apiece remaining against Edmonton and St. Louis as well as 2 games against Vancouver, the Wild have a very up and down schedule remaining.
Key games: 3/14 @ Vancouver, 3/17 @ San Jose, 3/19 vs Columbus, 3/20 vs Montreal, 3/22 vs Toronto, 4/2 vs Tampa Bay, 4/3 @ Detroit, 4/7 @ Vancouver, 4/10 vs Dallas

12. Columbus Blue Jackets (73, 14, Won 1, 3-4-3)
playoffs: in the hunt, likely won't make it
The Blue Jackets made a great run over the past few months, but try as they might, they just couldn't get much ground on the huge pack of teams vying for a playoff berth. Now they appear burnt out, and they are dropping too many games to keep their playoff dreams alive. If they win out most of their remaining games, they still have a chance, but the odds are not very good. They made some good deadline pickups this season, and if they add one more steady defender and some scoring touch to take the load off of Rick Nash, they should have a good enough team to finally make the playoffs next year. They have 8 home games and 6 road games remaining.
Key games: 3/15 vs Boston, 3/17 vs Detroit, 3/19 @ Minnesota, 3/20 vs New Jersey, 3/24 @ Phoenix, 3/27 vs Vancouver, 3/31 @ Washington, 4/1 vs Chicago, 4/5 @ Dallas, 4/8 @ Nashville, 4/9 vs Buffalo

13. St. Louis Blues (71, 13, Lost 1, 4-6-0)
playoffs: out
A 10-point margin between the Blues and 8th place is not insurmountable, but with only 11 games remaining, poor play of late, and an historic logjam in their Conference (of which only 2 remaining opponents are not a part), I think it's safe to say the Blues will not make the playoffs this year. Still, stranger things have happened. They have a promising organization, that looked like a pretty good team at the start of the year. Unfortunately, injuries took their toll and performance dropped. The lack of some key players exposed a serious hole in secondary scoring as well as team defense. There are many key pieces in place for next season, and Chris Stewart looks to emerge as an elite scoring power forward. However, the loss of minute-eating defensemen Eric Brewer and Erik Johnson puts a straing on their remaining D and goaltending. They should look to add some strong defensmen and a little more scoring punch up front in the off-season. If their lackluster performance continues through their remaining 11 games, they will end up with a top 5 draft pick. If they keep this pick, Colorado will get their 1st-rounder next year. If they don't, Colorado will get 2 top 5 picks this year. A better home team, the Blues have 5 left in St. Louis, and 6 left on the road.

14. Colorado Avalanche (60, 14, Lost 4, 1-8-1)
playoffs: out
The Avalanche are in the midst of one of the most impressively horrible streaks in recent memory. They are 2-18-2 in their last 22 games, and have not won more than one game in a row since their 2 stariaght victories on January 14 and 18. They have enough youthful talent to surprise next season, much like they did last year. But as of now, a season which started with lots of promise has turned into an extreme failure in the past few months. The Avalanche showed they are not afraid to shake up the organization when they traded Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk to the Blues, and will likely to continue with this radical rebuilding route in the offseason. But now, they at least have a top 5 draft choice, potentially a #1, because although Ottawa and Edmonton are still behind them at the moment, their plummeting performance and barely discernable vital signs indicate a definite possibility of finishing dead last this season.

15. Edmonton Oilers (55, 12, Lost 1, 4-5-1)
playoffs: out
The Edmonton Oilers find themselves in familiar territory as this season draws to a close. They will have a top 5 draft pick, potentially a 2nd straight #1. They have many promising young faces coming into the organization and are ready for the rebuilding to continue in the offseason. They have been showing some signs of life lately and may jump out of last place in the league.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Crunch Time

With only a few short weeks remaining in the season, teams are seeing new faces in action in fighting for postseason berths in two of the tightest playoff races in recent years. Teams who are struggling need to up their game or risk missing the playoffs, and teams that are hot need to keep the fire going. It's shaping up to be one hell of a stretch run. Here are my analyses of the Conference races. For each teams, the three numbers after their name shall indicate (points, games remaining, streak, record in last ten games). NR stands for Non-Regulation Loss (shootout, overtime). For now here's the East. The West is coming soon.

EASTERN CONFERENCE:
Not quite the crap shoot that the West is, but still, 6 teams are fighting for 7th and 8th in the East. The top 6 teams are probably safe at this point, and the bottom 3 are probably out as they are more than 10 points back from Buffalo. But 7th and 12th are still only separated by 10 points, and the way things are going this year, it could come down to the last game of the year for some of these teams. Just remember, Philadelphia made it to the Stanley Cup Finals last year after their playoff berth rested on winning a shootout in the final contest of the season. Anything can happen.

1. Philadelphia Flyers (86, 17, Lost 4, 4-5-1)
playoffs: safe
The mighty Flyers are beginning to show signs of weakness. Once way ahead of the pack, they now hold the top position in the East by only two points. They have lost 4 in a row, including losses to Toronto and Ottawa, and yesterday got embarassed 7-0 by the Rangers. They obviously have a secure hold on a playoff spot, and even home-ice advantadge in the first round, but if they want to hold onto their Conference title and compete with Vancouver for the President's trophy, they need to turn their game around with strong play against the tough teams, and now even the weaker teams it would seem. The recent stumble certainly cannot be blamed on Deadline moves; they gave up no roster players and added Kris Versteeg, who has been an offensive force for them already. Perhaps the question mark in goal is becoming a more pressing matter, and could have serious implications for them in the postseason. They have 8 home and 9 road games remaining, which shouldn't matter much as their records are about equal, with 20 wins apiece.
Key games: 3/10 @ Toronto, 3/19 @ Dallas, 3/22 vs. Washington, 3/24 vs. Pittsburgh, 3/27 vs. Boston, 3/29 @ Pittsburgh, 4/1 @ New Jersey, 4/3 vs. NY Rangers, 4/8 @ Buffalo

2. Boston Bruins (84, 17, NR Loss, 7-2-1)
playoffs: safe
Despite a weekend setback in overtime against the Penguins, the Bruins are playing some of their best hockey of the season, energized by recent acquisitions Rich Peverley, Chris Kelly, and Tomas Kaberle. Going into their loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday, they had won 7 games in a row, including all 6 games of a road trip, the first time they have done this since their lat Cup season of 1971-72, including wins against Vancouver and Calgary. They now find themselves only two points behind Philly for the top spot in the Eastern Conference and if they keep up this recent tear are just about guaranteed home-ice advantadge through at least the first round of the playoffs.They have been lackluster at best when playing at home this season, but are one of the best road teams in the league. They have 8 road games remaining, including a 4 game trip including Western Conference games against Columbus and Nashville, and 9 games left at home. They are going to need to find their game in front of the home crowd if they want to have greater playoff successes this year. With a fairly tough remaining schedule, the B's will have to stay at the top of their game. They also have 2 games remianing againt the Maple Leafs, whose first round pick they own, and will do their best to push them further down the standings to secure a better draft position.
Key games: 3/8 @ Montreal, 3/10 vs. Buffalo, 3/15 @ Columbus, 3/17 @ Nashville, 3/19 @ Toronto, 3/22 vs. New Jersey, 3/24 vs. Montreal, 3/26 vs. NY Rangers, 3/27 @ Philadelphia, 3/29 vs. Chicago, 3/31 vs. Toronto, 4/4 @ NY Rangers, 4/10 @ New Jersey

3. Washington Capitals (82, 16, Won 4, 7-3-0)
playoffs: safe
The Capitals' offense has been shockingly impotent this year, but Alex Ovechkin is heating up and so is the team. They just passed Tampa Bay to take the lead in the Southeast Division Winners of four straight, they have been playing very strong hockey and have added three strong players to the team in Jason Arnott, Marco Sturm, and Dennis Wideman. While they have two young unproven goaltenders in Semyon Varlamov and Michael Neuvirth, they have a fairly experienced offense now, who are poised to make up for last year's playoff disaster. The Capitals are heating up at the right time and are ready to show the hockey world what they failed to show it last year, a shining chalice with their newly engraved names on it. They need to do more damage away from D.C., however. They are a much better home team, but have 9 of their last 16 games on the road. This includes a 6 game road trip that starts and ends in Montreal and also hits Philadelphia, Detroit, and New Jersey.
Key games: 3/7 @ Tampa Bay, 3/11 vs. Carolina, 3/13 vs. Chicago, 3/15 @ Montreal, 3/16 @ Detroit, 3/18 @ New Jersey, 3/22 @ Philadelphia, 3/26 @ Montreal, 3/29 vs. Carolina, 3/31 vs. Columbus, 4/2 vs. Buffalo, 4/5 @ Toronto

4. Pittsburgh Penguins (84, 15, Won 1, 3-3-4)
playoffs: safe
The big story for two months has been the lack of Sidney Corsby and Evgeni Malkin on the Penguins roster. Malkin is definitely out for the remainder of the season, and Crosby's return looks less and less likely with each passing day. Ray Shero did his best to spark the offense by adding James Neal and Alexei Kovalev, but so far, neither has been able to produce for the Pens. They have somehow managed to stay in 4th place for quite a while, but I have to wonder how. They just haven't been good enough without their two big stars, and as much as a few weeks ago I said otherwise, that is seriously going to hurt them down the stretch. They will make the playoffs, but don't expect them to go to far once they get there. Still, in the meantime, they can work on improving their game and try to figure out how they can make a decent run. With Philly's recent stuble, they are now only 2 points out of both the top spot in their division, and the top spot in the Conference. 8 of their remaining 15 games are at home, where their record is about equal to that of the road.
Key games: 3/8 vs. Buffalo, 3/12 vs. Montreal, 3/20 vs. NY Rangers, 3/21 @ Detroit, 3/24 @ Philadelphia, 3/25 vs. New Jersey, 3/29 vs. Philadelphia, 3/31 @ Tampa Bay, 4/5 vs. New Jersey

5. Tampa Bay Lightning (81, 17, Lost 3, 4-4-2)
playoffs: safe
Armed with one of the most potent offenses in the league as well as a sturdy veteran defense, the Bolts have the firepower they need to bring home their second Stanley Cup in seven seasons. But there's something wrong. They've lost three in a row, and the league's leading scorer, Steven Stamkos, is experiencing a bit of a drought. Some may want to panic, but don't worry; every team has some struggles now and then, and this team is just far too good to keep stumbling. They will fight to retake control of the Southeast Division, and they will turn this dry spell around. The turnaround begins with Steven Stamkos; he had a brief drought earlier in the season, but then exploded once again. He is a game-changer, and when he is scoring, the team is winning. They are a better home team, and have 8 remaining home and 9 remaining away games.
Key games: 3/7 vs. Washington, 3/9 vs. Chicago, 3/14 @ Toronto, 3/17 @ Montreal, 3/25 vs. Carolina, 3/26 @ Carolina, 3/31 vs. Pittsburgh, 4/2 @ Minnesota, 4/3 @ Chicago, 4/5 @ Buffalo, 4/9 @ Carolina

6. Montreal Canadiens (79, 16, Won 4, 6-3-1)
playoffs: safe
Winners of 4 straight, the Canadiens continue to surprise me. Their roster has been devasted by injuries all season long, but they continue to hold sixth place in the East. Whether or not they can catch the Bruins in the Northeast division remains to be seen, but they have been playing extremely well, and have a good chance at a deep run in the postseason. After they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals as the 8th seed last year, and after fighting through all their injuries this year, nobody should count the Habs out until they are actually eliminated. They dominate at home, but 9 of their remaining 16 games are on the road.
Key games: 3/8 vs. Boston, 3/12 @ Pittsburgh, 3/15 vs. Washington, 3/17 vs. Tampa Bay, 3/18 @ NY Rangers, 3/20 @ Minnesota, 3/22 vs. Buffalo, 3/24 @ Boston, 3/26 vs. Washington, 3/30 @ Carolina, 4/2 @ New Jersey, 4/5 vs. Chicago, 4/9 @ Toronto

7. New York Rangers (74, 14, Won 2, 5-3-2)
playoffs: in the hunt, holding on to a spot
Despite a recent upswing, the Rangers 74 points make it impossible to say the Rangers will definitely make the playoffs. However, they have managed to hold onto the 7th spot in the Conference through a down period and now that they are heating up, they have a very, very good chance of keeping their spot in the postseason. With the addition of Bryan McCabe, their defense is much stronger, which will make Henrik Lundqvist's job easier. The entire weight of the team has been put back on his shoulder's with the injury to Martin Biron, but he has gotten more rest this season than he is used to and is still playing as dominantly as ever. The Rangers are a much better road team; they are sub-.500 at Madison Square Garden, and they have 7 games apiece left at home and on the road.
Key games:  3/9 @ Anaheim, 3/12 @ San Jose, 3/18 vs. Montreal, 3/20 @ Pittsburgh, 3/26 @ Boston, 3/30 @ Buffalo, 4/3 @ Philadelphia, 4/4 vs. Boston, 4/9 vs. New Jersey

8. Buffalo Sabres (72, 17, Won 2, 5-3-2)
playoffs: in the hunt, holding on to a spot
After an extremely slow start to the season, tj Sabres have found their game. They have been playing strong hockey of late, and have recently supplanted Carolina for the last playoff position. Since being picked up by Buffalo, Brad Boyes has been paying off, and the only subtraction the Sabres made to their roster was Criag Rivet, who was not playing anyway. The Sabres are starting to come together at the right time. If they remain hot, they could be a dangerous challenger to a higher-seeded team in the postseason, as they have a better record on the road. It's too soon to think about that though; with a tough remaining schedule, right now they are still fighting for survival and 9 of their last 17 contests are at home, where the Sabres have not been particularly sharp this season.
Key games: 3/8 @ Pittsburgh, 3/10 @ Boston, 3/12 @ Toronto, 3/15 vs. Carolina, 3/20 vs. Nashville, 3/22 @ Montreal, 3/26 vs. New Jersey, 3/29 @ Toronto, 3/30 vs. NY Rangers, 4/2 @ Washington, 4/3 @ Carolina, 4/5 vs. Tampa Bay, 4/8 vs. Philadelphia, 4/9 @ Columbus

9. Carolina Hurricanes (71, 16, Lost 1, 5-4-1)
playoffs: in the hunt, could make it
Led by the hockey world's Justin Bieber, rookie scoring sensation Jeff Skinner, the Hurricanes have held on to the 8th spot in the East for a while now. But they have been recently tossed aside by Buffalo and are eager to take their playoff spot back. A team that is historically good in the playoffs, the Hurricanes could be dangerous should they manage to clinch a spot. If they can turn their game up a notch, they will have the 8th spot locked up, but they need a strong finish. They have a solid, decenlty talented, hard-working team who can shock dominant opponents. They have been a very good home team this year, and the fans in Carolina are in a hockey mood after the All-Star game this year. The Canes have the enviable situation of being a strong home team with 10 of their last 16 games at home. Also, 7 of the last 16 games are against familiar divisional opponents. The odds seem to be in Carolina's favor, but they will still need to play excellent hockey to stay alive in this tight race.
Key games: 3/11 @ Washington, 3/12 vs. Columbus, 3/15 @ Buffalo, 3/16 vs. Toronto, 3/25 @ Tampa Bay, 3/26 vs. Tampa Bay, 3/29 @ Washington, 3/30 vs. Montreal, 4/3 vs. Buffalo, 4/6 vs. Detroit, 4/9 vs. Tampa Bay

10. Toronto Maple Leafs (67, 16, Lost 1, 6-1-3)
playoffs: in the hunt, could make it
The Maple Leafs are a team currently in a very good situation. They made a bunch of trades leading up to the Trade Deadline in a season that seemed lost. Their roster isn't particularly impressive. Still, they are somehow only 5 points out of a playoff spot and are playing some great hockey. They are a team with absolutely nothing to lose, and they will go all out to try to clinch a very surprising playoff berth. They have a young team who will gain some experience through winning games, winning enough games will earn them a playoff spot, and the best part is they don't have a draft pick to worry about. Some weak teams would not have a prblem playing poorly, because a bad record yields a high draft pick. But the Leafs pick is owned by Boston, who already took Tyler Seguin with Toronto's pick last year. The position of the pick means nothing to the Leafs and they have nothing holding them back from making a strong playoff push. Even if they don't make the playoffs, they can spoil some teams' records, and they have also shown that the future looks bright for the blue crew.

11. Atlanta Thrashers (65, 16, Won 1, 3-6-1)
playoffs: in the hunt, likely will not make it
Though they are only 7 points out of 8th, it doesn't look good for the Thrashers this season. After a strong start, the Thrashers are fading fast, which is evident when looking at All-Star Dustin Byfuglien's 13-game scoring drought. Still, they cannot totally be counted out of the playoffs yet, unless they keep playing the way they have been lately. They need to win big and win often, and do it now if they want to make the playoffs. The Thrash have an extremely difficult schedule ahead of them and only 6 of their last 16 games are at home. The Thrashers just don't seem to have what it takes to make the playoffs this year. But they have a great wealth of young talent in the system mixed with some decent veterans. They made some good pickups this year that should help them in the very near future. Look for them to be a much better team next year.
Key games: 3/9 @ Carolina, 3/11 vs. New Jersey, 3/12 @ Philadelphia, 3/15 @ New Jersey, 3/17 vs. Philadelphia, 3/19 @ Buffalo, 3/25 vs. Vancouver, 3/29 @ Montreal, 3/31 @ Philadelphia, 4/2 @ Boston, 4/5 @ Nashville, 4/7 vs. NY Rangers, 4/8 vs. Carolina, 4/10 vs. Pittsburgh

12. New Jersey Devils (64, 17, Won 4, 9-1-0)
playoffs: in the hunt, could make it
The Devils continue to shock the hockey world with this unprecented climb from the depths of the standings. At this point, it is both hard to believe that they will make the playoffs, and hard to believe that they won't. Led by a different looking Ilya Kovalchuk, the Devils have been a winning machine for over a month now and have rocketed from last place to within 8 points of 8th place with 17 games to go. Still, they are not gaining ground as quickly as you'd expect of a team that's picked up so many points in such a short amount of time. With the way they have been winning games, it is hard to believe they are not a shoe-in for the playoffs; but one of 6 teams fighting for 2 spots in the eastern playoffs, they still pretty much have to win out the rest of the season to clinch an historic playoff berth. If they can continue this run, they should be all set, but if they tire and burn out, they can kiss their short-lived playoff dreams goodbye.They have 9 home and 8 road games remaining. The odds are against the Devils, but they've been against them every game for the past few months, and so far they've proven everyone wrong.
Key games: 3/18 vs. Washington, 3/20 @ Columbus, 3/22 @ Boston, 3/25 @ Pittsburgh, 3/26 @ Buffalo, 4/1 vs. Philadelphia, 4/2 vs. Montreal, 4/5 @ Pittsburgh, 4/6 vs. Toronto, 4/9 @ NY Rangers, 4/ 10 vs. Boston


13. Florida Panthers (61, 16, NR Loss, 2-6-2)
playoffs: out
Another year, another let-down for the Panthers. 11 points out of a playoff spot with 16 games to go and a 2-6-2 record in their last 10, the Panthers have virtually no chance of making the playoffs. They will continue to develop their young talent in this last month of the season, but will hope to achieve another top 5 draft pick in June. There is not much motivation to win games anymore. There is a wealth young talent in the system, but the team is still a ways off from being competetive and will be conservative with development. Dale Tallon built the Championship Blackhawk team in Chicago, and knows what he is doing in Florida as well. He just needs some time.

14. New York Islanders (60, 15, NR Loss, 4-3-3)
playoffs: out
The Islanders have been playing very well lately. They have a young team who has been on a scoring mission and has been handing out physical punishment in the process. They have no chance of making the palyoffs, but will continue to play as well as they can to get these younger players experience and confidence. They definitely will have another top 10 pick, if not a top 5, so why not score some goals and try to spoil some teams' playoff hopes while they wait for the summer? They are on the brink of being a highly-competitive team, with a very talented young offensive core, and should work on their defense over the summer. But for now, they should just enjoy the ride.

15. Ottawa Senators (53, 17, Lost 1, 5-4-1)
playoffs: out
The Senators have had an absolutely abysmal season which culminated in Bryan Murray's recent firesale. As the smoke clears, very little remains on the once-mighty Ottawa roster and with lots of picks and prospects in the system, Ottawa looks to the draft and free agency to help bring back their winning form. The turn-around begins in Minnesota in late June, and right now, the Senators are pretty much guaranteed a top 5 draft pick. With the lottery, the top pick is not certain, but the team with the worst record certainly has the best chance of geting it. The Senators don't care about winning games anymore. They care about getting that top pick, and getting some of their younger prospects some experience in the last 17 games of this campaign.