Saturday, April 30, 2011

Round 2 Underway

I didn't get a chance to write out my predictions for this round before it started, so I figured I'd wait until one game was in the books for each series. Let's see if I can keep up my good streak, I was 7 for 8 in the first round, the only series I got wrong was Philly over Buffalo. I am keeping my predictions from when the series began regardless of how the first game turned out, though may use events of those games to reinforce my arguments. Interestingly enough, identical seeds from each conference won their series. Also interestingly enough, my prediction is that the same will happen this time around. So far my two Eastern winners are leading, and my two Western winners are down.

EAST
1. Washington Capitals vs. 5. Tampa Bay Lightning-TBL leads 1-0
Both of these Southeast rivals have potent offenses and sturdy defenses, but the thing that will set them apart in this series is goaltending. Michal Neuvirth adn Dwayne Roloson entered this series as the top two goalies in the playoffs thus far. However, Neuvirth is young and unproven, and did not face all that much fire from the Rangers in the five game series. Dwayne Roloson meanwhile, played 7 games and is 41, and still put up those numbers. He has tons of playoff experience and will be especially important if this series goes the distance, as of last series he is 6-0 in his career in Game 7s. Also, Tampa's issues late this year came when Steven Stamkos wasn't socring. He began to regain his scoring touch late in the last series and could break away and lead the charge in this series.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins

2. Philadelphia Flyers vs. 3. Boston Bruins-BOS leads 1-0
There are two main reasons why the Bruins will win this series: goaltending and history. Tim Thomas has let in a few bad goals so far these playoffs, but was also a major reason why the Bruins won their series. Philadelphia used 3 goalies in the first series and so far after one game have already used two in this series. The Flyers offense is much better than the Bruins, and their defense probably has an edge as well, but if the Flyers goalies can't keep the puck from going in, they have no chance in this series. The Bruins had two major issues in the first series, and one of those already seems to be on the mend. David Krejci and Milan Lucic were awful in the first series, but David Krejci found his game today with a two goal performance. The most glaring issue is the Bruins' power play. After eight games, the Bruins are 0 for 26 on the power play. They will need to solve this issue if they really want to win games. History was against the Bruins in the first series, but they beat the odds and won a seven game series for the frist time since 1994, won a series after dropping the first two games for the first time in franchise history, and won a 7 game series without scoring a power play goal for the first time in NHL history. The Flyers also won a series using three goaltenders for the first time in NHL history. With last year's epic debacle agaisnt the Flyers fresh in the Bruins' mind, they should be extra fired up to prove themselves in this series and avenge their past failure.
Prediction: Boston wins

WEST
1. Vancouver Canucks vs. 5. Nashville Predators-VAN leads 1-0
This is a questionable choice perhaps, but after seeing the near epic collapse of the Canucks in the first round, anything can happen. Judging by the ridiculous effect that the return of Dave Bolland to the Blackhawks lineup had on the Canucks, one notices that the best way to counter the Canucks flashy, talented offense is with grit and hard work. The Predators have just the kind of lineup that can do that. The only concern here is that the Predators don't have many talented scorers, but if they can wear down the Canucks and keep the games close, they have an outstanding chance of reaching the Conference Final. Roberto Luongo has been shaky in net and Pekka RInne has been very good. The Predators forwards were awful in game 1, as shown by Bary Trotz's fury after the game, but still they only lost 1-0. Trotz's disappointment with the team is likely to fire them up to bring their A game for the rest of the series. This is sure to be an exciting and close series fought between two teams backstopped by two Vezina nominees and coached by two Jack Adams nominees.
Prediction: Nashville wins

2. San Jose Sharks vs. Detroit Red Wings-SJS leads 1-0
Stability and consistency are my keys to why Detroit will win this series. The Sharks showed flashes of brilliance in their first round series vs. the Kings. They showed they can ignite for a few quick goals, but they also showed they can give up a few quick goals just as easily. They have a potent offense and a steady defense, but there are definitely holes that the Kings were able to exploit on multiple occasions, which should be found much more easily by the experienced Red Wings. Last year's Stanley Cup winning goaltender Antti Niemi had a goals against average of 3.99 in the first round and Antero Niittymaki was stellar when he saw action. Still, Todd McLellan is sticking with Niemi, but he will need to change his mind if Niemi starts to look like he did against the Kings. On the Wings side, Jimmy Howard has found some consistency in net, which has really been the only question mark the Wings have ever had. Johan Franzen and Henrik Zetterberg should be returning to add to an already expert lineup. Their back end is full of crafty veterans, too. Nicklas Lidstrom has played over 250 playoff games and amazingly has averaged a goal every 5 games. All of these players have a ton of playoff experience and many are left over from the Cup team from three years ago. The Wings are in a 1-0 hole right now, but were very close to winning that game. They lost the game only 2-1 in Overtime on a deflected shot that would have missed the net. The Wings are also fresh from the long break after their sweep of Phoenix and should be able to handle the wear and tear better if the series goes deep.
Prediction: Detroit wins

Monday, April 25, 2011

Making the Rounds

Now that we're about two weeks into the playoffs, we may as well check in on each first round series, see what's going on, what to expect, and how my initial predictions are looking.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks vs. 8. Chicago Blackhawks-Series tied 3-3
With the powerhouse Canucks, it didn't come as much a surprise when Vancouver took a commanding 3-0 lead in the series. But after that, Roberto Luongo is starting to show why he may be the new Evgeni Nabakov. For all of his extraordinary regular season numbers, Evgeni Nabakov never showed up in the playoffs for the Sharks, who let the goaltender go after a decade of disappointment. So far with the Canucks, Bobby Lu has put up elite numbers every year, but the Canucks have yet to get very far come April. His team has been eliminated by Chicago in the playoffs for the past two seasons, and believe it or not, have a serious chance at the hat trick. Since grabbing the 3-0 lead, the Canucks have lost two games in dramatic fashion plus an overtime thriller to the down-but-not-out defending champs. Luongo was even pulled in one of them, and Alain Vignault chose to start Corey Schneider in Game 6, though he was later injured on a penalty shot and replaced by Luongo. Facing the sweep, Chicago ignited for a 7-2 win, and followed it up with a 5-0 pounding in Vancouver. The chances of Chicago making the miraculous comeback are slim to none on paper, but they are now only one road win away in a year where the road team seems to have the advantage. If they can keep the pedal to the floor, they could pull it off. This is Vancouver's series to lose.
Previous prediction: Vancouver wins
Status: seemed pretty good, but not anymore. next victor wins the series. could go either way
2. San Jose Sharks vs. 7. Los Angeles Kings-SJS leads 3-2
The Kings have shown during this series why they should not be counted out. But then again, they have also shown why they should. With the loss of Anze Kopitar, the 7th-seeded Kings entered this series the clear underdogs. They showed their stuff in game 1 by bringing the hungry Sharks into overtime, where they would eventually lose. They followed it up with a 4-0 shutout against one of the best offenses in the league to even the series at a game apiece. Early in the second period of game three, things seemed to be looking good for the Kings. Their quick 4-0 lead in game three after a 4-0 shutout in the previous game probably had many thinking the Kings would soon have the series locked up. But then the Sharks scored 5 second period goals. The Kings would blow this very sizeable lead and go on to lose the game 6-5 in overtime. After this debacle, they needed to bounce back, but were defeated handiliy in game four, 6-3. The Kings responded well with another quick 3-goal explosion in the first period of game 5. They held on for the 3-1 win and now return home to Los Angeles facing a 3-2 deficit. They have showed flashes of brilliance but also flashes of extreme failure. If they can stay at the top of their game, they have a chance to make a comeback. But they need to win both of the next two games, and the Sharks are circling.
Previous prediction: San Jose wins
Status: still looking good

3. Detroit Red Wings vs. 6. Phoenix Coyotes-DET wins 4-0
Though the Coyotes at times put up a decent fight, the Red Wings were as dominant as ever in this series and will be a formidable foe for whoever they face in the next round. They have a nice long break after the sweep to get rested up for their next opponent.
Previous prediction: Detroit wins
Status: Correct

4. Anaheim Ducks vs. 5. Nashville Predators-NSH wins 4-2
After an up and down first four games, the Predators turned it up a notch in games 5 and 6 and are now headed to the second-rond for the first time in franchise history. Mike Fisher is proving to have been a valuable pickup so far in the postseason.
Prediction: Nashville wins
Status: Correct

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals vs. 8. New York Rangers-WSH wins 4-1
New York played well at times but could gave the talented caps too many opportunities, including blowing a Game 4 lead of 3 goals going into the thrid period which could have evened the series 2-2. Caps goalies are still unproved, but their offense has been clicking at the right times.
Previous prediction: Washington wins.
Status: correct

2. Philadelphia Flyers vs. 7. Buffalo Sabres-Series tied 3-3
This is a very close series. No team has lead the series by more than a game, and only one game was decided more more than one goal. And that game was decided by two goals, including an empty-netter. The last two games have been decided in overtime. After a comeback win on the road, you would have to think Philly has the momentum coming home for Game 7. Buffalo needs to up their scoring and hold onto a lead. Two of their wins have been 1-0, and yesterday they lost in overtime after giving up a two-goal lead. Buffalo will likely be missing Jason Pominville again after his ankle was sliced open with a skate, and now Tim Connolly is out after a brutal hit from behind by Flyers Captain Mike Richards which yielded no more than a two-minute minor penaltyfor boarding. Derek Roy is returning to the lineup for Game 7 however, which could be a huge spark for the Sabres offense. He was the team's leading scorer when he went down, with 35 points in 35 games, but after missing a significant amount of time, he may not even have time to shake the rust off before the Sabres are sent packing. Chris Pronger was also back in the lineup for Philly yesterday, playing only on the powerplay. The more action he sees, the more effective he will be. The deciding factor in this game 7 could be the goaltending. The Flyers goaltending has been awful for most of the series and Boucher and Leighton have been playing musical chairs in the crease. Ryan Miller has been on and off this series, but when he's on, he can bring the calibur of goaltending to the net that made him last year's Vezina Trophy winner.
Previous prediction: Buffalo wins
Status: could go either way, next victor wins the series.

3. Boston Bruins vs. 6. Montreal Canadiens-BOS leads 3-2
Bston looked awful at home, dropping the first 2 games of the series, but theybounced back very well with two road victories in Montreal and another home win in Game 5, turnong a 2-0 series deficit into a 3-2 series lead. They have shown some resiliency, making the comeback in the series and well as a comeback on the road in Game 4. Now they head into Montreal where they are 2-0 this seires. They now just need to win one of the next two games to advance. This is bound to be a close, hard-battling finish to the seires, after two-straight overtime games between the fiercest rivals in the game. If Montreal gets a lead, they need to do a better job of holding onto it. Boston needs more production out og the Krejci-Horton-Lucic line.
Previous prediction: Boston wins.
Status: wasn't looking good after Game 2, but now the Bruins seems to be in control.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 5. Tampa Bay Lightning-PIT leads 3-2
Pittsburgh took a 3-1 series lead and the Lightning seemed to be struggling massively. The Lightning's powerful offense finally burst in Game 5, erupting for an 8-2 victory in Pittsburgh, which included two goals each by Stamkos, Gagne, and Kubina. Stamkos's two goals could wake him up from his recent dormacny which could be huge to this series and beyond. When the Lightning are scoring, they are winning. In their two victories this series, they have scored 13 goals. meanwhile in their three losses, they have found the back of the net only 4 times. If their offense is clicking, the Penguins are no match for them. Still, they  would need to pull off victoryies in both of the next two games to advance.
Previous predictions: Tampa Bay wins
Status: looking a little bit better after last game, but Pittsburgh is still in control of this series.


Second Round matchup scenarios by team

WEST:

Vancouver-needs to win Game 7 vs. Chicago to move on.
 If San Jose wins, they will face Nashville.
 If Los Angeles wins, they will face Los Angeles.

San Jose-needs to win Game 6 or Game 7 vs. Los Angeles to move on.
 If Vancouver wins, they will face Detroit.
 If Chicago wins, they will face Chicago.

Detroit-moved on.
 If Vancouver and San Jose win, they will face San Jose.
 If Vancouver and Los Angeles win, they will face Nashville.
 If Chicago and San Jose win, they will face Nashville.
 If Chicago and Los Angeles win, they will face Chicago.

Anaheim-eliminated.

Nashville-moved on.
 If Vancouver and San Jose win, they will face Vancouver.
 If Vancouver and Los Angeles win, they will face Detroit.
 If Chicago and San Jose win, they will face Detroit.
 If Chicago and Los Angeles win, they will face Los Angeles.

Phoenix-elimianted.

Los Angeles-needs to win Games 6 and Game 7 vs. San Jose to move on.
 If Vancouver wins, they will face Vancouver.
 If Chicago wins, they will face Nashville.

Chicago-needs to win Game 7 vs. Vancouver to move on.
 If San Jose wins, they will face San Jose.
 If Los Angeles wins, they will face Detroit.

EAST:

Washington-moved on.
 If Buffalo wins, they will face Buffalo.
 If Philadelphia and Montreal win, they will face Montreal.
 If Philadelphia, Boston and Tampa Bay win, they will face Tampa Bay.
 If Philadelphia, Boston and Pittsburgh win, they will face Pittsburgh.

Philadelphia-needs to win Game 7 vs. Buffalo to move on.
 If Montreal and Pittsburgh win, they will face Pittsburgh.
 If Montreal and Tampa Bay win, they will face Tampa Bay.
 If Boston wins, they will face Boston.

Boston-needs to win Game 6 or Game 7 vs. Montreal to move on.
 If Buffalo and Pittsburgh win, they will face Pittsburgh.
 If Buffalo and Tampa Bay win, they will face Tampa Bay.
 If Philadelphia wins, they will face Philadelphia.

Pittsburgh-needs to win Game 6 or Game 7 vs. Tampa Bay to move on.
 If Philadelphia and Boston win, they will face Washington.
 If Philadelphia and Montreal win, they will face Philadelphia.
 If Buffalo and Montreal win, they will face Montreal.
 If Buffalo and Boston win, they will face Boston.

Tampa Bay-needs to win Game 6 and Game 7 vs. Pittsburgh to move on.
 If Philadelphia and Boston win, they will face Washingston.
 If Philadelphia and Montreal win, the will face Philadelphia.
 If Buffalo and Montreal win, they will face Montreal.
 If Buffalo and Boston win, they will face Boston.

Montreal-needs to win Game 6 and Game 7 vs. Boston to move on.
 If Philadelphia wins, they will face Washington.
 If Buffalo and Pittsburgh win, they will face Pittsburgh.
 If Buffalo and Tampa Bay win, they will face Tampa Bay.

Buffalo-needs to win Game 7 vs. Philadelphia to move on.
 They will face Washington.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

First Round

Well, folks, the playoffs have arrived. The first round opens tonight with 5 games. I'm not going to make any big predictions from here on who is going to win each Conference and who is going to win the Cup, but round-by-round, I will evaluate each matchup and give who has the edge in the current matchups.

In the East:
(1) Washington Capitals versus (8) New York Rangers.
After the acquisition of veteran centerman Jason Arnott at the trade deadline, the Caps went on a serious tear that shot them from the middle of the playoff pack all the way up to the top of the Eastern Conference. Alex Ovechkin is looking like himself again and although recent pickup Dennis Wideman is sidelined with a hematoma in his leg, Mike Green should be returning to the lineup, which will make an already hot team even better. They have some veterans to go along with a lot of young talent and now their biggest concern should be their rotation of three unproven young goaltenders. Michal Neuvirth, Semyon Varlamov, and Braden Holtby were all outstanding during the season, but who knows how they will fare in this new pressure-laden environment, where only Varlamov has seen some action before. The Caps disappointed massively when they were upset in the first round as the top seed last year, but they have learned from their experience and should have the tools and experience to win this time around. While the Capitals have been hot, the Rangers have been seriously offensively challenged of late, winning most of their recent games solely thanks to the outstanding play of Henrik Lundqvist. The return of Chris Drury should spark the offense a bit. He is an incredibly valuable postseason asset and has the nickname "Captain Clutch" for good reason. However, the loss of forward Ryan Callahan does hurt. The Rangers have the talent to score a ton of goals, but they never seem to do so; facing a questionable goaltending team could work to their advantadge here. However, they will have to up their defense to take the load off of Lundqvist in the face of the explosive Caps offense if they want to have any shot at pulling off the upset. Edge: Washington.

(2) Philadelphia Flyers versus (7) Buffalo Sabres
The Flyers shocked the hockey world last year in many ways. They made the playoffs thanks to a shootout victory on the last day of the season. Next they performeed the impossible by overcoming a 3-0 series and 3-0 third period deficit against the Bruins. And they came without two wins of winning the Stanley Cup. At the start of the season, I believed that the Flyers, with their incredibly stacked lineup should be the favorite to win the Cup, and for most of the season, my prediction didn't seem too far off. However, recently, they have been playing poorly and at season's end had relinquished the lead in the Eastern Conference. Their goaltending is, as it always is, umproven. Brian Boucher has had some playoff success, and Michael Leighton was the hero last year. But neither of these goalies are consistent, and the nod is likely to be given to rookie Sergei Bobrovsky. Despite still having a defense that boasts Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn, Matt Carle, Andresz Meszaros, Sean O'Donnell, and Nick Boynton, the absence of their most prized defensive asset, Chris Pronger, has been a great hindrance to the Flyers of late. Pronger has played in three of the last five Stanley Cup Finals. He lost with the Flyers last year and the Oilers in 06, and he won with the Ducks in 07. His return for the first round remains questionable. Meanwhile, the Sabres have been incredibly hot over the last stretch, propelling themselves into a playoff spot. Ryan Miller is returning from injury, and if he is not a proven big game goaltender, I don't know who is. Brad Boyes has fit in nicely so far, provided a valuable scoring touch, and Drew Stafford is apt to go on a tear if he gets hot. Thomas Vanek is always a danger, especially in front of the net, where he scores a lot of tip-in goals. Look to him to add his name to the score sheet in that fashion, with Pronger not there to push him out of the crease. If Buffalo can ride their hot streak, they have a very good chance to pull off the upset on the defending Eastern Conference champs. Edge: Buffalo.

(3) Boston Bruins versus (6) Montreal Canadiens
This series is shaping up to be the typical energetic, high-drama showdown it always is between the two most bitter rivals in the league, now only escalated since the Chara/Pacioretty incident. The Canadiens ave maangeed to stay consistent over most of the season despite a lamentable myriad of injuries to some of their biggest players. At this point, the Canadiens are the team that needs to prove something, since the last faceoff in Boston, a game which they were expected to win handily, resulted in an embarrassing 7-0 defeat. They have loads of skill and veteran leadership, but those veterans, like Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez, need to step up their game in a year where they have been largely unproductive. While maybe not as skilled as Montreal, the Bruins have a big advantadge, size. The Canadiens are very small, and the Bruins will send their grinders out to pester the fast scorers. The Bruins should keep their physical play disciplined though, for the Canandiens had one of the best power plays in the league during the season, and area where the Bruins have been lately anemic. With Tim Thomas and Carey Price between the pipes, the offenses are going to have to give their best efforts on both ends. Look for this to be a very emotional and hard-hitting drama on the ice and in the stands. Edge: Boston.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins versus (5) Tampa Bay Lightning
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been the biggest surprise of the second half. Despite missing both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for the better part of 4 months, the Penguins have found a way to win and have home-ice for the first round. This could be a huge factor, because with such recent playoff success, the white-shirt covered arena in Pittsburgh will have an electric atmosphere. The Penguins have a solid defense and an all-star goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. Despite all of their success, I have to wodner how long they can keep this up without their two biggest stars. After a hot start, the lightning faltered a bit recently, but picked it up again at the end of the season. Their goaltending is questionable with the age of Dwayne Roloson, but he can be clutch, and had he not been injured nin Game 1 of the 2006 Final, the Oilers likely would have hoisted the Cup. They have a very deep blue line and an incredibly talented offense. With Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, and Simon Gagne, the Lightning can chip away at the sturdy Penguins D and find a way to score. Edge: Tampa Bay.

In the West:
(1) Vancouver Canucks versus (8) Chicago Blackhawks
The Canucks have been the most dominant team in the league all season long. Even when injuries claimed five of their top six defenseman in February, they continued to find a way to win. Their healty defense is outstanding, helping to reduce the goals scored against the Canucks, a job whcih is almost unnecessary when Roberto Luongo is in net.With an elite goalie and an elite defense, the Blackhwaks need to work incredibly hard to score goals. And score goals they will have to. Up front the Canucks are deadline. With this season's Art Ross winner Daniel Sedin, and his twin, LAST season's Art Ross winner Henrik Sedin, plus defensive sepcialist Ryan Kesler who is exploding offensively, their offense is about as deadly as it could be. The defending Champs have plenty of offense too, but after a desperate late-season run, they are tired, and their defense is looking ragged. For the second straight year, they have an unproven backstop. With the elite Cnaucks, the odds are clearly stacked in Vancouver's favor. Edge: Vancouver

(2) San Jose Sharks versus (7) Los Angeles Kings
The Sharks have never had much playoff success. But this could be the year where that all changes. After a mediocre midseason record, the Sharks got hot and have stayed that way. They have one of the most potent offenses in the league, but those players are notorious for underperforming when it counts. These players, i.e. Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Dany heatley, will need to find their big game mentality if the Sharks are to have success. Other forwards Joe Pavelski, Devin Setoguchi, and standout rookie Logan Couture will need to play bog roles as well. After Dan Boyle, the Sharks blue line is not star-packed, but is definitely a very solid group of defenders. Perhaps the biggest reason why the Sharks run could be different this year is between the pipes. After a decade of regular season domination and playoff failure from Evgeni Nabakov, the Sharks now have Antti Niemi, who was a major factor in the Blackhawks championship team last year. He is on a trememdous streak and could carry the Sharks deep into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Kings have a tremendous young goalie of their own in Jonathan Quick. They have a solid core of young defenders led by Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson, as well as Cup winner Rob Scuderi. They still have a potent offense with Dustin Penner, Ryan Smyth, Jarret Stoll, and Dustin Brown, but the absence of Justin Williams and Anze Kopitar will hurt them severely. Williams may return to help make this a close series between these two Californian rivals, but ultimately, the Sharks have the deeper, hotter team. Edge: San Jose

(3) Detroit Red Wings versus (6) Phoenix Coyotes
The Phoenix Coyotes are always an inspiring story. A team that performs despite a lack of respect, a lack of ownership, and a lack of certainty as to what country their home rink will be in next season. Despite the feel-good nature of a Coyotes win, the odds aren't good. They have an outstanding coach in Dave Tippett, an outstanding goaltender in Ilya Bryzgalov, and a solid blue line with lots of veterans plus an explosive young offensive-minded D-man in Keith Yandle.The problem? Their offense. Captain Shane Doan led the team this season with just 20 goals. The scoring by committee approach can work for a while, but when you're facing what's been one of the league's most dominant franchises for well over a decade, this type of offense becomes an issue. Even with the questionable status of Henrik Zetterberg and their recent cold strecth, the Red Wings are one of the most dominant, talented, and experienced teams in the league. They have a very skilled offense, a tremendous defense, and a great coach in Mike Babcock. The only question remains streaky young goalie Jimmy Howard, but his inconsistent play shouldn't become a factor until a later round. Edge: Detroit

(4) Anaheim Ducks versus (5) Nashville Predators
This should be a hard fought series from both sides. Anaheim definitely has the stronger offense with Richard winner Corey Perry and ageless veteran Teemu Selanne leading the charge. Nashville has more of a scoring by committee approach, but their hard-working lineup should keep the big scorers in check and gradually wear down the opposition. Each team has a solid defensive corps, but the edge in this series goes to the team with the better goaltender. Anaheim's goaltending is a serious question, as All-Star Jonas Hiller has played one game since late February. Ray Emery and Dan Ellis are inconsistent solutions. For Nashville, Pekka Rinne has been one of the league's best goaltenders all season long, and he will be the difference in this series. If Anaheim does manage to hold off a Predators upset, they will be severely worn out for Round Two. Edge: Nashville

Second Round Matchups if my predictions are correct:

EAST:
(7) Buffalo @ (1) Washington
(5) Tampa Bay @ (3) Boston

WEST:
(5) Nashville @ (1) Vancouver
(3) Detroit @ (2) San Jose

Monday, April 4, 2011

Closing In

I was remiss by not doing my two weeks West analysis like I said I would, but now with only 1 week remaining in the season, here is a brief analysis of all the teams that have not been mathematically eliminated.

Note: for remaining games, *indicates a game-in-hand between 2 teams fighting for a spot, ^ indicates a game-in-hand between 2 teams fighting for their divisional title. H and A are the home and road combinations of games remaining.

EAST
1. Flyers: clinched a spot. Briefly lost 1st place then regained it. Ice cold lately, 3-3-4 in last 10. Need to improve going into playoffs. 3 games remaining. Highest they could finish is 1, lowest they could finish is 5.
Remaining games: 4/5 @ Senators, 4/8 @ Sabres, 4/9 vs Islanders-AAH

2. Capitals: clinched a spot. Still red hot, and will likely overtake Philly, 7-2-1 in last 10 and Ovechkin is back in the lineup. Young goaltenders still a question mark in playoffs. 3 games left. Highest they could finish is 1, lowest they could finish is 5.
Remaining games: 4/5 @ Maple Leafs, 4/6 vs Florida, 4/9 @ Florida-AHA

3. Bruins: clinched a spot and division. Back on track after a brief stumble, 6-2-2 in last 10. Need to finish strong going into playoffs. Been playing low-scoring defensive game lately, need more production. 4 games left. Highest they could finish is 1, lowest they could finish is 3, thanks to their divisional clinch. Right now the only Eastern team guaranteed home ice in the first round.
4/4 @ Rangers, 4/6 vs Islanders, 4/9 vs Senators, 4/10 @ Devils-AHHA

4. Penguins: clinched a spot. Still playing great with injured lineup, 7-3 in last 10. Coould shock some teams in the playoffs, only because that's what they've been doing for 3 months. 3 games left. Highest they could finish is 1, lowest they could finish is 5.
Remaining games: 4/5 vs Devils, 4/8 @ Islanders, 4/9 vs Thrashers-HAH

5. Lightning: clinched a spot. Playing better again after a shaky period, 6-2-2, 5 straight wins. Still questionable consistency, not good for playoffs, but enough talent to make a great run as long as they keep up strong play. 3 games left. Highest they could finish is 1, lowest they could finish is 5.
Remaining games: 4/5 @ Sabres, 4/8 vs Panthers, 4/9 @ Hurricanes-AHA

6. Canadiens: have not clinched. With three games left apiece, they are only 4 points ahead of Carolina. They are far enough ahead that Toronto cannot pass them, but are still in danger of losing a playoff spot if they keep up their recent struggles, 4-6. Highest they could finish is 6, lowest they could finish is 9. If they make the playoffs, they will not get home-ice advantadge.
Remaining games: 4/5 vs Blackhawks, 4/7 @ Senators, 4/9 @ Maple Leafs*-HAA

7. Sabres: have not clinched. Still playing strong, 7-2-2, and Jhonas Enroth is proving to be a capable backup in the place of Ryan Miller. Need to keep up strong play to hold a spot though. They are 1 point behind Montreal in 6th, 1 point ahead of the Rangers in 8th, 3 points ahead of Carolina in 9th, and 6 points ahead of Toronto in 10th. If they get 1 more point, they are guaranteed to finish ahead of Toronto. 3 games left. Highest they could finish is 6th, lowest they could finish is 10th.If they make the playoffs they will not have home ice advantadge.
Remaining games: 4/5 vs Lightning, 4/8 vs Flyers, 4/9 @ Blue Jackets-HHA

8.  Rangers: have not clinched. Buffalo's strong play has pushed them into 8th, but they've been hot themselves, 7-2-1. Need to keep earning points to stay in the top 8. 3 games left, 2 points ahead of 9th place and 5 ahead of 10th. Highest they could finish is 6th, lowest is 10th. If they make the playoffs, they will not have home ice advantadge.
Remaining games: 4/4 vs Bruins, 4/7 vs Thrashers, 4/9 vs Devils-HHH

9. Hurricanes: have not clinched. They are currently out of the playoffs, but are on a tear, 7-2-1, and only  2 points out of 8th, 3 out of 7th, and 4 out of 6th. Need to take as many points as the can in their remaining 3 games. Highest they could finish is 6th, lowest is 10th. If they make the playoffs, they will not get home-ice advantadge.
Remaining games: 4/6 vs Red Wings, 4/8 @ Thrashers, 4/9 vs Lightning-HAH

10. Maple Leafs: have not clinched. The Leafs are hot 7-3, 3 wins in a row. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against them. They can still make it into 7th or 8th, but would need to win out their last three games and have the Sabres Hurricanes, and Rangers suddenly start losing. Win or lose, a valiant effort for the surprising Leafs. Highest they could finish is 7th, lowest is 12th. If they make the playoffs, they will not get home ice advantadge.
Remaining games: 4/5 vs Capitals, 4/6 @ Devils, vs Canadiens*-HAH

11. Thrashers: eliminated.

12. Devils: eliminated.

13. Islanders: eliminated.

14. Senators: eliminated.

15. Panthers: eliminated.


WEST
1. Canucks: clinched a spot, the division, the conference, and the league. Will have home ice advantadge throughout playoff. 3 games left, as dominant as ever, 8-2-0. Won't bother with their remaining games, because there spot will not be changed.

2. Red Wings: clinched spot and division. Still playing decently, 5-3-2 and Datsyuk is back in the lineup. Detroit is always a threat to take home the cup. Guaranteed home ice advatadge. 3 games left. Highest they could finish is 2nd, lowest in 3rd.
Remaining games: 4/6 @ Hurricanes, 4/8 vs Blackhawks, 4/10 @ Blackhawks-AHA

3. Sharks: clinched a spot. 4 games left. Still playing great, 7-1-2. Antti Niemi has been lights out for weeks. Always a threat to do well, maybe they can actually execute this year. Highest they could finish is 2nd, lowest is 5th. All remaining games are divisional.
Remaining games: 4/4 vs Kings^, 4/6 @ Ducks, 4/8 @ Coyotes^, 4/9 vs Coyotes^-HAAH

4. Kings: have not clinched. Still playing great in the absence of Justin Williams and Anze Kopitar, 7-2-1. Need to finish strong to clinch a spot, and could still take the division as they are only 5 points behind the Sharks with 4 games left. Highest they could finish is 3, lowest they could finish is 9th. 9th place Calgary cannot catch them, but 10th place Dallas can. All remaining games are divisional games-in-hand.
Remaining games: 4/4 @ Sharks^, 4/6 vs Coyotes*^, 4/8 @ Ducks*, 4/9 vs Ducks*-AHAH

5. Coyotes: have not clinched. Also playing strong hockey of late, 7-2-1. 3 games left and equal in points with Los Angeles. Still need a strong finish to hold a spot. Highest they can finish is 3rd, lowest they can finish is 9th. Calagry caan't catch them but Dallas can. All remaining games are divisional games in hand.
Remaining games: 4/6 @ Kings*^, 4/8 vs Sharks^, 4/9 @ Sharks^-AHA

6. Predators: have not clinched. A recent surge has brought them from the bottom of the playoff race into a strong position with only 3 games to play, 7-2-1. Not overly talented, but have some surprising players. Pekka Rinne has been outstanding in net. Can't take their foot off the gas or could still miss out on the postseason. Highest they could finish is 4th, lowest they could finish is 9th. Thanks to tie-breaking procedures, Calgary can't catch them, though they can tie them in points and wins. Dallas could still overtake them.
Remaining games: 4/5 vs Thrashers, 4/8 vs Blue Jackets, 4/9 @ Blues-HHA

7. Ducks: have not clinched. Thanks to explosive scoring from Corey Perry and the ageless wonder Teemu Selanne, the Ducks have shot up in the standings, 7-3. Still need to keep it up if they wish to stay in the hunt. 3 games left. Highest they could finish is 4th, lowest is 10th. All remaining games are divisional games-in-hand.
Remaining games: 4/6 vs Sharks, 4/8 vs Kings*, 4/9 @ Kings*-HHA

8. Blackhawks: have not clinched. Despite a monster run led by Captain Jonathan Toews, the defending champs have cooled off a little, 5-4-1, and dropped into the final playoff spot. They are only 1 point ahead of Calgary and 3 ahead of Dallas, but still have 4 games to play. Highest they could finish is 4th, lowest is 10th.
Remaining games: 4/5 @ Canadiens, 4/6 vs Blues, 4/8 @ Red Wings, 4/10 vs Red Wings-AHAH

9. Flames: have not clinched. After a fanatstic run that put them very much back in the playoff race, the Flames have died down, 4-4-2, and with only 2 games left in a very tight playoff race, could see their hot stretch amount to nothing. Need to win their last 2 games and get some luck from the other teams. Highest theycould finish is 7th, lowest they could finish is 10th. If they make the playoffs, they can not get home ice advantadge.
Remaining games: 4/6 vs Oilers, 4/9 vs Canucks-HH

10. Stars: the Stars faded drastically from their early season success, and in in serious trouble, 2-5-3. If they can right the ship now, their 4 remaining games could be enough to put them in the playoffs, but there are so many teams fighting for the remaining spots that hope is slight. Highest they could finish is 4th, lowest they could finish is 10th. The good news for the Stars is that each of their last 4 games are against struggling teams who are out of the playoff picture. Games-in-hand would be nice to have, but at least they have a chance to beat up on weaker teams to get some much needed points.
Remaining games: 4/5 vs Blue Jackets, 4/7 vs Avalanche, 4/8 @ Avalanche, 4/10 @ Wild-HHAA

11. Wild: eliminated.

12. Blues: eliminated.

13. Blue Jackets: eliminated.

14. Avalanche: eliminated.

15. Oilers: eliminated.

Monday, March 28, 2011

Two Weeks

Two weeks remain, and still only five teams have clinched playoff spot, 4 in the East, 1 in the West. I only have an hour elft to write this post, so I'm not going to get as in depth as my last standings analysis, but will give a brief rundown of the playoff race and team news. I will consider teams that are more than 7 points out of 8th place to be out of the playoff race.

EASTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Philadelphia Flyers
 Record: 45-20-10, 100 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 5-1-4
 Streak: Lost 2
 Playoff Status: clinched
Still going strong, but not as strong as they had been. Last night they were booed off the ice by the Philly fans after losing a close 2-1 game to Boston. Need a spark for a playoff boost.

2. Washington Capitals
 Record: 44-22-10, 98 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 8-2-0
 Streak: Won 1
 Playoff Status: clinched
On a serious hot streak. Alex Ovechkin and Jason Arnott close to returning, and Mike Green is recovering as well. Could be very dangerous in the playoffs.

3. Boston Bruins
 Record: 42-23-10, 94 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 4-4-2
 Streak: Won 1
 Playoff Status: clinched
Starting to play better after a recent slide. Need to keep up strong play and get hot going into playoffs.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins
 Record: 45-23-8, 98 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 8-2-0
 Streak: Won 4
 Playoff Status: clinched
Continue to play surprisingly well in the absence of Sid and Geno. Crosby is practicing again, but still no timetable for return. Extremely hot right now, but 4 straight wins have all been in shootouts. Might not be so dangerous in playoffs, where OT is continuous.

5. Tampa Bay Lightning
 Record: 40-24-11, 91 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 3-3-4
 Streak: Won 1
 Playoff Status: in the hunt, in good shape
Thanks to their hot start, the Lightning are still in 5th despite recent struggles. Need to seriously turn their game around soon or will face an early exit in the postseason. The turnaround begins with Steven Stamkos, who is in the middle of his worst dry spell of the season, and just dropped to second in the league in goals for the first time since Sidney Crosby was still in the lineup for Pittsburgh. He is a game-changer. If he is scoring, the Lightning are winning. They are 11 points ahead of 9th place Carolina.

6. Montreal Canadiens
 Record: 40-29-7, 87 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 4-6-0
 Streak: Lost 3
 Playoff status: in the hunt, in good shape
After enduring injury struggles all season, the Canadiens continued to shock the hockey world by winning games. But after a crushing 7-0 defeat to the Bruins, the Canadiens seem to have lost their game. They have plenty of talent and the tools to make a run, but they need to improve their play drastically with the playoffs so close. They are 7 points ahead of 9th place Carolina.

7. New York Rangers
 Record: 41-30-5, 87 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 8-1-1
 Streak: Won 1
 Playoff Status: in the hunt, in good shape
Riding a recent hot streak, the Rangers have put some more distance between themselves and Carolina. With strong defensive play and the brick wall that is King Henrik Lundqvist, the Rangers are poised to rocket further up the standings. They are also 7 points ahead of Carolina.

8. Buffalo Sabres
 Record: 39-28-9, 85 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 6-3-1
 Streak: Won 3
 Playoff Status: in the hunt, in good shape
If the Sabres keep playing strong hockey, the will have the eighth position locked up. They have a 5 point lead on Carolina with 7 games left apiece, so they should be in if they don't stumble

9. Carolina Hurricanes
 Record: 35-30-10, 80 pts
 Games Left: 7
 Last 10: 4-5-1
 Streak: Lost 1
 Playoff Status: in the hunt, not looking good
With mediocre play of late coupled with the recent Sabres and Rangers surges, the Canes playoff chances are getting slimmer. They have 7 games left and are 5 points out of the playoffs.

10. Toronto Maple Leafs
 Record: 34-32-10, 78 pts
 Games Left: 6
 Last 10: 5-4-1
 Streak: Lost 1
Had a surprising run recently, but have since cooled off and with 6 games left and a 7 point deficit, they are all but eliminated.

The rest of the East:
11. Atlanta Thrashers. 9 points out with 7 games left. Nearly insurmountable.
12. New Jersey Devils. 12 points out with 7 games remaining. Basically impossible.
13. New York Islanders. 15 points out with 6 games remaining. Mathematically impossible.
14. Florida Panthers. 16 points out with 6 games remaining. Mathematically impossible.
15. Ottawa Senators. 17 points out with 6 games remaining. Mathematically impossible.

West coming soon.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Better Late Than Never

I haven't posted in a week, and with the season winding down and my latest analyses of the standings so recent, I need something to talk about. Somehow I managed to refrain from this subject when it happened, but I just can't stay silent anymore. Chara. Pacioretty. I am doing a project on the Montreal vs. Boston coverage of this event, and after reading so much aggravating discussion of the hit, I am severley frustrated.

Generally, I try my absolute best to stay impartial, and I am trying to approach this the same way. You may say being a Bruins fan makes me unfit to make an ubiased comment on this event, and may argue with anything I say for that reason. But I consider myself very open to consider all the angles no matter who the players or teams are that I am talking about. I agreed with suspensions to Bruins this years, Brad Marchand and Danile Paille. I can step aside and realize a bad hit, or a good hit, when I see one, no matter who the culprit or the victim. I have taken the brunt of some flack for my opinions on this hit from a lot of my friends. But I sincerely stand by my opinion and hope that my readers can take a minute to actually consider the angles of what I am saying, instead of immediately judging my words based on your existing position.

I believe this was a very unfortunate hit. But I do not consider this a dirty hit on the part of Chara. Both players carry some of the responsibility for this event, but judging by the existing rules, Chara's hit was legal. Everyone is calling for Chara's head, but two heads for one does not help Pacioretty. Pacioretty claimed he was disgusted that the league took no action, citing the fact that the players need to take notice and not do this.

Meanwhile, the league HAS taken notice and has taken appropriate action, discussing the dimensional changes that need to be made to NHL arenas in order to eliminate the dangers of the stanchion between the benches. Had the hit taken place anywhere else on the ice, Pacioretty is fine. One can argue that this is no excuse: Chara is a veteran and should use better judgment at that area of the ice. At that speed, however, it's tough to be so aware of your surroundings.

Speaking of awareness, many believe this was Chara's retaliation for a previous incident between the two players. Was Chara annoyed with Pacioretty still? Probably, but I doubt so much to the point that he would intentionally try to injure a player. Aside from some fights in the moment, Chara is not a dirty player. If he wants to get someone back, he will do it with a big, clean hit.

And speaking of intention, some argue that Chara used his hand to guide Pacioretty's head into the stanchion, and he showed no remorse because he didn't even look back to see if he was okay. To this I say the following:
In terms of the hand, no foul on Chara. He was pushing off on Pacioretty for some leverage, pretty much everyone does that a bit. You can say no that's not always the case, but when you're riding someone along the boards and intend to keep going without losing speed, you're going to push off. Leaning into a guy without your hand in that situation costs you balance, and therefore speed. Then you might say, yeah, but players pushing off don't push off on someone's head. To this, I give two numbers. 6'9" and 6'2". Chara has seven inches on Pacioretty, natrually, if he extends his arm, it's going to be at level with Pacioretty's head. I see no intent in this extension. Chara wasn't even looking at Pacioretty, and probably had no idea where exactly his arm was extending into. Likewise, Chara didn't look back to see the damage of his hit because he didn't realize what had happened; he was not looking.

I also mentioned that both players carry some responsibility. Some may wonder how I could think this is Pacioretty's fault, but watch the replay. on the slow motion, run it a few times over and watch closely. Right before contact, Pacioretty jumps. He tries to squeeze by between Chara and the boards and avoid the hit. Now off balance, his upperbody is easily pushed back by Chara, and over the boards, into the stanchion. Had Pacioretty leaned into the hit, he would still be in the lineup.

Additionally, I'd like to point out that to the Canadiens fans who think Bruins fans are defending Chara because of the Savard and Bergeron incidents that we did not throw beers at Brent Johnson or Antero Niittymaki on the bench. But maybe we're just not passionate enough.

My opinion on the legality aside, this was a very unfortunate event and I wish Max Pacioretty a speedy and successful recovery.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Wild West

WESTERN CONFERENCE:
This Conference ain't big enough for the 12 of us. But seriously....
There are 15 teams in each Conference, and of these, only 8 make the playoffs. There are 12 teams that could make the playoffs, same as the East. The difference is how incredibly close the race is here; 3rd place and 11th place or separated by only 9 points. For a while now, this has been a Conference where a team could be in 12th place one night, and then in 4th a night later. Any team not based out of Detroit or Vancouver pretty much needs to play their best hockey of the year from now till season's end to guarantee a playoff berth, and it's quite possible that all 5 teams in the Pacific Division could make the playoffs. Teams will need to play especially well against this division to try to make room for themselves in the postseason.When virtually every game from now until the playoffs is a game-in-hand between two clubs fighting for a playoff spot, you can expect a crazy finish to this season.

1. Vancouver Canucks (Points: 99, Games Left: 12, Streak: Won 5, Record in Last 10 Games: 7-3-0)
playoffs: safe
The Canucks are a not only the clear winners of their division, but they are also the clear leaders of the Conference, and likely the League. They are virtually unstoppable this season, and continue to impress despite a massive hole in their blue line. With full health, the Canucks boast 3 of the league's leading scorers, one of the league's strongest defenses, an elite goaltender, and an outstanding young back-up. The Canucks have all the tools to engineer a Stanley Cup victory, but plenty of number one team's have failed to take home the sports world's greatest chalice. The Canucks have been consistent all year long and show no signs of slowing down. They are pretty much locks for the President's Trophy this year. They are equally deadly at home and on the road, and have 6 games left for each.

2. Detroit Red Wings (90, 13, Won 2, 4-4-2)
playoffs: safe
The Red Wings are one of only two teams in their Conference who I can safely say will make the playoffs, and with 8 points separating them and the Blackhawks, they are also one of only two teams in the league who I can safely say will win their Division (barring a monumental collapse, of course). Year in and year out the Red Wings are impressive, and now that their lineup has returned to health, they are as dangerous as ever. They have plenty of playoff experience and are always a threat to take home the Cup. They have 8 home games and 5 road games still to play. They are good anywhere, but are particularly outstanding on the road.

3. San Jose Sharks (86, 13, NR Loss, 7-1-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
As will be stated several times in this post, the Pacific Divsion is ridiculously close. Pacific teams hold the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th seeds at the moment, and Anaheim is only 2 points out of 8th. Every one of these teams could make the playoffs. Or potentially only 2. Each of these teams needs to play their best hockey of the season from now until the final whistle, as points are sorely needed and the Pacific Division is jam-packed with games-in-hand from now until mid-April. Not even the Sharks are safe. They currently hold the top spot in the division thanks to a recent surge, and if they keep up their strong play, they will keep their spot. But with so many teams breathing down each other's necks, nobody is truly safe until April 11. The Sharks have one of the biggest stockpiles of fearsome scorers in the league, with a top line of Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, and Dany Heatley, as well as strong secondary scorers Joe Pavelski, Ryane Clowe, Devin Setoguchi, and rookie standout Logan Couture. With last year's Cup winner Antti Niemi between the pipes, the Nabakov era is over in San Jose, as they hope to end a decade of playoff disappointment. They have 7 remaining home games and 6 games left away from the Shark Tank. Amazingly, their last 8 games are against Pacific Division team, as well as 9 of these last 13 games. They play each of their divisional rivals twice, plus a third game against Phoenix. If the Sharks go on a tear for the rest of the season, they could put some serious distance between them and their divisonal competition.
Key games: 3/14 @ Chicago, 3/15 @ Dallas, 3/17 vs Minnesota, 3/23 vs Calgary, 3/24 @ Los Angeles, 3/26 @ Phoenix, 3/31 vs Dallas, 4/2 vs Anaheim, 4/4 vs Los Angeles, 4/6 @ Anaheim, 4/8 @ Phoenix, 4/9 vs Phoenix

4. Los Angeles Kings (83, 13, Won 3, 7-2-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
With the trade deadline acquisition of Dustin Penner powering an already potent offense, the Kings have moved into 4th place and look to be in fine shape. Or they would, if not for the 8 teams biting at their tails. In most seasons, a team in fourth this late in the seasons would be very close to clicnhing a playoff berth. But this year, the Western Conference is packed like sardines and the smallest slip could make or break any team's season. If the Kings continue their current tear, they should hold their ground in the standings and may go deep in the playoffs. They have 6 20-goal forwards in Penner, Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, Ryan Smyth, Jarret Stoll, and Anze Kopitar, a solid defense anchored by young blueliners Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson as well as former Stanley Cup-winning Penguin Rob Scuderi, and an outstanding goaltender in Jonathan Quick. A better home team, the Kings play 8 of their final 13 games at the Staples Center, and face divisional rivals 7 more times, including each of their last five games. These last 5 games will be as important to the entire rest of the division as it will be to the Kings. They will face the Ducks 3 more times and the Sharks 2 more times.
Key games: 3/15 @ Nashville, 3/19 vs Anaheim, 3/21 vs Calgary, 3/24 vs San Jose, 3/31 @ Vancouver, 4/2 vs Dallas, 4/4 @ San Jose, 4/6 vs Phoenix, 4/8 @ Anaheim, 4/9 vs Anaheim

5. Phoenix Coyotes (83, 12, Won 2, 4-4-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
Like a lot of teams in the Western race, the Coyotoes recently put together an impressive streak. But they have been average since then and if not for their 8-game winning streak, would be a lot further down the standings. They need something to spark their team. Maybe that lies in the coach; Dave Tippett was last year's coach of the year. Hopefully he can inspire some fire in the Coyotes, or they'll find themselves watching games instead of playing them come April. 7 of their remaining 12 games are at home, including a 6-game home-stand. 5 of their last 6 games are against fellow closely-packed Pacific Division teams, including 3 against current division leader San Jose. That final stretch is going to be crucial for not for every team in that division.
Key games: 3/15 @ Calgary, 3/18 @ Vancouver, 3/20 vs Chicago, 3/24 vs Columbus, 3/26 vs San Jose, 3/29 vs Dallas, 4/6 @ Los Angeles, 4/8 vs San Jose, 4/9 @ San Jose

6. Dallas Stars (82, 13, Lost 1, 6-2-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
After a few down seasons, the Stars found themselves leading their division earlier this season. Brad Richards went down with an injury and the Stars faded fast. Now they seem to have righted the ship and recently moved from a sub-8 position to 4th place, only to drop down to 6th when they were leapfrogged in a loss to the Kings. The best thing the Stars can do is to ignore the standings and keep playing their game. With the proximity of temas in the Conference, positions in the standings are likely to swap several times a night, and the Stars seem to have found their game recently. If they can keep this going, they should have a playoff berth, but the seed could be anywhere from 3rd to 8th. They have 6 remaining home games, and 7 remaining games against divisional opponents, including a road trip that hits each divisional rival city once. This could be a huge factor in who makes the playoffs, and what seeds they get, as each of these five teams jostles for not only a playoff spot, but the division title.
Key games: 3/15 vs San Jose, 3/17 vs Chicago, 3/10 vs Philadelphia, 3/23 vs Anaheim, 3/26 @ Nashville, 3/29 @ Phoenix, 3/31 @ San Jose, 4/2 @ Los Angeles, 4/3 @ Anaheim, 4/5 vs Columbus, 4/10 @ Minnesota

7. Chicago Blackhawks (82, 13, NR Loss, 7-1-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
After a strong run that included and 8-game winning streak and a rise to 4th place, the Blackhawks find themselves back in 7th and only 2 points ahead of 9th place less than a week later. Just goes to show how tight this playoff race is. The Blackhawks have turned it on at the right time, led by young Captain Jonathan Toews. Toews is the hottest player in the league right now; he has 12 goals and 31 points in his last 20 games, and yesterday tied his career high of 69 points with 13 games to go in the season. Corey Crawford has been a surprise in net this year, but the rookie has been worked heavily lately, which could work against the Hawks should they make the playoffs, but that didn't seem to phase Antti Niemi much last year. If the Hawks continue their recent surge, they could have home-ice advatadge in the first round. 6 of their remaining 13 games are at home in front of fans hungry for a Cup repeat. They have 3 games reamining against division-leading rival Detroit.
Key games: 3/14 vs San Jose, 3/17 @ Dallas, 3/20 @ Phoenix, 3/26 vs Anaheim, 3/28 @ Detroit, 3/29 @ Boston, 4/1 @ Columbus, 4/3 vs Tampa Bay, 4/5 @ Montreal, 4/8 @ Detroit, 4/10 vs Detroit

8. Calgary Flames (81, 11, Lost 2, 5-4-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
The Flames crawled out from the depths of the Western Conference with an impressive streak over the past few months, but have cooled off a bit recently and are only in 8th place by 1 point. They will need to keep the fire of the last two months alive if they want to keep their newfound playoff spot. They have strong defense and goaltending as well as a decent offense and have all the tools they need to win games. As long as they don't burn out from their long climb into the top 8, they should make the playoffs, where they could be very dangeous. They still have 5 home games and 6 road games to play. The biggest thing working against them now is that they only have 11 games left in a Conference where you need all the points you can get.
Key games: 3/15 vs Phoenix, 3/20 @ Anaheim, 3/21 @ Los Angeles, 3/23 @ San Jose, 3/30 vs Anaheim, 4/9 vs Vancouver

9. Nashville Predators (80, 13, Won 2, 4-4-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
After slipping a bit, the Predators are starting to string a few wins together and currently sit 1 point out of 8th place. Barry Trotz is a great coach, and always manages to get a solid seasonal performance out of a mediocre roster. There is definitely some talent on the Predators, but there are no huge superstar names that jump out at you, and the Predators will need to keep their team effort strong if they are to make the playoffs. They look to be in good shape, but as is the case with every team it seems right now, they will need to play their best hockey of they year in this final stretch. One huge advantadge lays in favor of the Predators for this final stretch: they are a better home team, and 10 of their remaining 13 games are in Nashville, and the only three road games are against the hot-but-beatable Sabres, the pitiful Avalanche, and the fading Blues. With this good of a schedule remaining, the Predators may have a leg up on their large pack of competition. If they do make the playoffs, don't expect them to go very far.
Key games: 3/15 vs Los Angeles, 3/17 vs Boston, 3/19 vs Detroit, 3/20 @ Buffalo, 3/24 vs Anaheim, 3/26 vs Dallas, 3/29 vs Vancouver, 3/2 vs Detroit, 3/8 vs Columbus

10. Anaheim Ducks (79, 13, Lost 1, 5-4-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
After strong consistent play for a while, the Ducks have cooled off slightly, but are still in good shape with only a 2-point margin between them and the 8th spot. They are currently the only Pacific Division team not in a playoff spot, but just one win would tie them with Clagary for 8th place. The looming question mark that remains is still Jonas Hiller. If he can get healthy, the Ducks have a much better shot at putting together a goodenough run to claim a playoff berth, and perhaps even go deep into the postseason. But with a tandem of notoriously inconsistent goaltenders in Ray Emery and Dan Ellis as well as a blue line that is more skilled offensively than defensively, the Ducks will need to focus on playing good team defense and back-checking if they are to keep winning games. They are a better home team and have 6 of 13 games remaining in Anaheim. 7 remaining games are against divisional opponents: 3 against the Kings, and two apiece against the Sharks and Stars. When all five teams in your division are in contention, this frequency of divisional matchup could make or break the Ducks. If they win enough of these games, they could find themselves not only making the playoffs, but taken home-ice advantadge by stealing the 3rd seed as the Pacific Division champs.
Key games: 3/19 @ Los Angeles, 3/20 vs Calgary, 3/23 @ Dallas, 3/24 @ Nashville, 3/26 @ Chicago, 3/30 @ Calgary, 4/2 @ San Jose, 4/3 vs Dallas, 4/6 vs San Jose, 4/8 vs Los Angeles, 4/9 @ Los Angeles

11. Minnesota Wild (77, 13, Lost 2, 4-5-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
Though in 11th, the Wild are only 4 points out of 8th place right now. As with any team from their spot all the way up to 3rd place, they have a great shot at making the playoffs, but walk, or rather skate, a razor's edge from now until all 1230 games are in the books. They have struggled of late, and need to turn that around immediately if they want to stay alive. There are far too many teams in contention to have even the tiniest slip this late in the game, and the Wild may have already dug themselves into too deep of a hole with their recent skid. They are not a strong scoring team, yet have one of the best power plays in the league. Generally a defensively-minded team, they are strong on the back end and have a solid goaltender in Niklas Backstron. If they can be more dangerous when playing even strength, they could be a formidable opponent for any team. But if they keep losing games, they will miss out on the playoffs. They have 7 games left at the Xcel energy Center and 6 games elsewhere. With 2 games apiece remaining against Edmonton and St. Louis as well as 2 games against Vancouver, the Wild have a very up and down schedule remaining.
Key games: 3/14 @ Vancouver, 3/17 @ San Jose, 3/19 vs Columbus, 3/20 vs Montreal, 3/22 vs Toronto, 4/2 vs Tampa Bay, 4/3 @ Detroit, 4/7 @ Vancouver, 4/10 vs Dallas

12. Columbus Blue Jackets (73, 14, Won 1, 3-4-3)
playoffs: in the hunt, likely won't make it
The Blue Jackets made a great run over the past few months, but try as they might, they just couldn't get much ground on the huge pack of teams vying for a playoff berth. Now they appear burnt out, and they are dropping too many games to keep their playoff dreams alive. If they win out most of their remaining games, they still have a chance, but the odds are not very good. They made some good deadline pickups this season, and if they add one more steady defender and some scoring touch to take the load off of Rick Nash, they should have a good enough team to finally make the playoffs next year. They have 8 home games and 6 road games remaining.
Key games: 3/15 vs Boston, 3/17 vs Detroit, 3/19 @ Minnesota, 3/20 vs New Jersey, 3/24 @ Phoenix, 3/27 vs Vancouver, 3/31 @ Washington, 4/1 vs Chicago, 4/5 @ Dallas, 4/8 @ Nashville, 4/9 vs Buffalo

13. St. Louis Blues (71, 13, Lost 1, 4-6-0)
playoffs: out
A 10-point margin between the Blues and 8th place is not insurmountable, but with only 11 games remaining, poor play of late, and an historic logjam in their Conference (of which only 2 remaining opponents are not a part), I think it's safe to say the Blues will not make the playoffs this year. Still, stranger things have happened. They have a promising organization, that looked like a pretty good team at the start of the year. Unfortunately, injuries took their toll and performance dropped. The lack of some key players exposed a serious hole in secondary scoring as well as team defense. There are many key pieces in place for next season, and Chris Stewart looks to emerge as an elite scoring power forward. However, the loss of minute-eating defensemen Eric Brewer and Erik Johnson puts a straing on their remaining D and goaltending. They should look to add some strong defensmen and a little more scoring punch up front in the off-season. If their lackluster performance continues through their remaining 11 games, they will end up with a top 5 draft pick. If they keep this pick, Colorado will get their 1st-rounder next year. If they don't, Colorado will get 2 top 5 picks this year. A better home team, the Blues have 5 left in St. Louis, and 6 left on the road.

14. Colorado Avalanche (60, 14, Lost 4, 1-8-1)
playoffs: out
The Avalanche are in the midst of one of the most impressively horrible streaks in recent memory. They are 2-18-2 in their last 22 games, and have not won more than one game in a row since their 2 stariaght victories on January 14 and 18. They have enough youthful talent to surprise next season, much like they did last year. But as of now, a season which started with lots of promise has turned into an extreme failure in the past few months. The Avalanche showed they are not afraid to shake up the organization when they traded Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk to the Blues, and will likely to continue with this radical rebuilding route in the offseason. But now, they at least have a top 5 draft choice, potentially a #1, because although Ottawa and Edmonton are still behind them at the moment, their plummeting performance and barely discernable vital signs indicate a definite possibility of finishing dead last this season.

15. Edmonton Oilers (55, 12, Lost 1, 4-5-1)
playoffs: out
The Edmonton Oilers find themselves in familiar territory as this season draws to a close. They will have a top 5 draft pick, potentially a 2nd straight #1. They have many promising young faces coming into the organization and are ready for the rebuilding to continue in the offseason. They have been showing some signs of life lately and may jump out of last place in the league.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Crunch Time

With only a few short weeks remaining in the season, teams are seeing new faces in action in fighting for postseason berths in two of the tightest playoff races in recent years. Teams who are struggling need to up their game or risk missing the playoffs, and teams that are hot need to keep the fire going. It's shaping up to be one hell of a stretch run. Here are my analyses of the Conference races. For each teams, the three numbers after their name shall indicate (points, games remaining, streak, record in last ten games). NR stands for Non-Regulation Loss (shootout, overtime). For now here's the East. The West is coming soon.

EASTERN CONFERENCE:
Not quite the crap shoot that the West is, but still, 6 teams are fighting for 7th and 8th in the East. The top 6 teams are probably safe at this point, and the bottom 3 are probably out as they are more than 10 points back from Buffalo. But 7th and 12th are still only separated by 10 points, and the way things are going this year, it could come down to the last game of the year for some of these teams. Just remember, Philadelphia made it to the Stanley Cup Finals last year after their playoff berth rested on winning a shootout in the final contest of the season. Anything can happen.

1. Philadelphia Flyers (86, 17, Lost 4, 4-5-1)
playoffs: safe
The mighty Flyers are beginning to show signs of weakness. Once way ahead of the pack, they now hold the top position in the East by only two points. They have lost 4 in a row, including losses to Toronto and Ottawa, and yesterday got embarassed 7-0 by the Rangers. They obviously have a secure hold on a playoff spot, and even home-ice advantadge in the first round, but if they want to hold onto their Conference title and compete with Vancouver for the President's trophy, they need to turn their game around with strong play against the tough teams, and now even the weaker teams it would seem. The recent stumble certainly cannot be blamed on Deadline moves; they gave up no roster players and added Kris Versteeg, who has been an offensive force for them already. Perhaps the question mark in goal is becoming a more pressing matter, and could have serious implications for them in the postseason. They have 8 home and 9 road games remaining, which shouldn't matter much as their records are about equal, with 20 wins apiece.
Key games: 3/10 @ Toronto, 3/19 @ Dallas, 3/22 vs. Washington, 3/24 vs. Pittsburgh, 3/27 vs. Boston, 3/29 @ Pittsburgh, 4/1 @ New Jersey, 4/3 vs. NY Rangers, 4/8 @ Buffalo

2. Boston Bruins (84, 17, NR Loss, 7-2-1)
playoffs: safe
Despite a weekend setback in overtime against the Penguins, the Bruins are playing some of their best hockey of the season, energized by recent acquisitions Rich Peverley, Chris Kelly, and Tomas Kaberle. Going into their loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday, they had won 7 games in a row, including all 6 games of a road trip, the first time they have done this since their lat Cup season of 1971-72, including wins against Vancouver and Calgary. They now find themselves only two points behind Philly for the top spot in the Eastern Conference and if they keep up this recent tear are just about guaranteed home-ice advantadge through at least the first round of the playoffs.They have been lackluster at best when playing at home this season, but are one of the best road teams in the league. They have 8 road games remaining, including a 4 game trip including Western Conference games against Columbus and Nashville, and 9 games left at home. They are going to need to find their game in front of the home crowd if they want to have greater playoff successes this year. With a fairly tough remaining schedule, the B's will have to stay at the top of their game. They also have 2 games remianing againt the Maple Leafs, whose first round pick they own, and will do their best to push them further down the standings to secure a better draft position.
Key games: 3/8 @ Montreal, 3/10 vs. Buffalo, 3/15 @ Columbus, 3/17 @ Nashville, 3/19 @ Toronto, 3/22 vs. New Jersey, 3/24 vs. Montreal, 3/26 vs. NY Rangers, 3/27 @ Philadelphia, 3/29 vs. Chicago, 3/31 vs. Toronto, 4/4 @ NY Rangers, 4/10 @ New Jersey

3. Washington Capitals (82, 16, Won 4, 7-3-0)
playoffs: safe
The Capitals' offense has been shockingly impotent this year, but Alex Ovechkin is heating up and so is the team. They just passed Tampa Bay to take the lead in the Southeast Division Winners of four straight, they have been playing very strong hockey and have added three strong players to the team in Jason Arnott, Marco Sturm, and Dennis Wideman. While they have two young unproven goaltenders in Semyon Varlamov and Michael Neuvirth, they have a fairly experienced offense now, who are poised to make up for last year's playoff disaster. The Capitals are heating up at the right time and are ready to show the hockey world what they failed to show it last year, a shining chalice with their newly engraved names on it. They need to do more damage away from D.C., however. They are a much better home team, but have 9 of their last 16 games on the road. This includes a 6 game road trip that starts and ends in Montreal and also hits Philadelphia, Detroit, and New Jersey.
Key games: 3/7 @ Tampa Bay, 3/11 vs. Carolina, 3/13 vs. Chicago, 3/15 @ Montreal, 3/16 @ Detroit, 3/18 @ New Jersey, 3/22 @ Philadelphia, 3/26 @ Montreal, 3/29 vs. Carolina, 3/31 vs. Columbus, 4/2 vs. Buffalo, 4/5 @ Toronto

4. Pittsburgh Penguins (84, 15, Won 1, 3-3-4)
playoffs: safe
The big story for two months has been the lack of Sidney Corsby and Evgeni Malkin on the Penguins roster. Malkin is definitely out for the remainder of the season, and Crosby's return looks less and less likely with each passing day. Ray Shero did his best to spark the offense by adding James Neal and Alexei Kovalev, but so far, neither has been able to produce for the Pens. They have somehow managed to stay in 4th place for quite a while, but I have to wonder how. They just haven't been good enough without their two big stars, and as much as a few weeks ago I said otherwise, that is seriously going to hurt them down the stretch. They will make the playoffs, but don't expect them to go to far once they get there. Still, in the meantime, they can work on improving their game and try to figure out how they can make a decent run. With Philly's recent stuble, they are now only 2 points out of both the top spot in their division, and the top spot in the Conference. 8 of their remaining 15 games are at home, where their record is about equal to that of the road.
Key games: 3/8 vs. Buffalo, 3/12 vs. Montreal, 3/20 vs. NY Rangers, 3/21 @ Detroit, 3/24 @ Philadelphia, 3/25 vs. New Jersey, 3/29 vs. Philadelphia, 3/31 @ Tampa Bay, 4/5 vs. New Jersey

5. Tampa Bay Lightning (81, 17, Lost 3, 4-4-2)
playoffs: safe
Armed with one of the most potent offenses in the league as well as a sturdy veteran defense, the Bolts have the firepower they need to bring home their second Stanley Cup in seven seasons. But there's something wrong. They've lost three in a row, and the league's leading scorer, Steven Stamkos, is experiencing a bit of a drought. Some may want to panic, but don't worry; every team has some struggles now and then, and this team is just far too good to keep stumbling. They will fight to retake control of the Southeast Division, and they will turn this dry spell around. The turnaround begins with Steven Stamkos; he had a brief drought earlier in the season, but then exploded once again. He is a game-changer, and when he is scoring, the team is winning. They are a better home team, and have 8 remaining home and 9 remaining away games.
Key games: 3/7 vs. Washington, 3/9 vs. Chicago, 3/14 @ Toronto, 3/17 @ Montreal, 3/25 vs. Carolina, 3/26 @ Carolina, 3/31 vs. Pittsburgh, 4/2 @ Minnesota, 4/3 @ Chicago, 4/5 @ Buffalo, 4/9 @ Carolina

6. Montreal Canadiens (79, 16, Won 4, 6-3-1)
playoffs: safe
Winners of 4 straight, the Canadiens continue to surprise me. Their roster has been devasted by injuries all season long, but they continue to hold sixth place in the East. Whether or not they can catch the Bruins in the Northeast division remains to be seen, but they have been playing extremely well, and have a good chance at a deep run in the postseason. After they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals as the 8th seed last year, and after fighting through all their injuries this year, nobody should count the Habs out until they are actually eliminated. They dominate at home, but 9 of their remaining 16 games are on the road.
Key games: 3/8 vs. Boston, 3/12 @ Pittsburgh, 3/15 vs. Washington, 3/17 vs. Tampa Bay, 3/18 @ NY Rangers, 3/20 @ Minnesota, 3/22 vs. Buffalo, 3/24 @ Boston, 3/26 vs. Washington, 3/30 @ Carolina, 4/2 @ New Jersey, 4/5 vs. Chicago, 4/9 @ Toronto

7. New York Rangers (74, 14, Won 2, 5-3-2)
playoffs: in the hunt, holding on to a spot
Despite a recent upswing, the Rangers 74 points make it impossible to say the Rangers will definitely make the playoffs. However, they have managed to hold onto the 7th spot in the Conference through a down period and now that they are heating up, they have a very, very good chance of keeping their spot in the postseason. With the addition of Bryan McCabe, their defense is much stronger, which will make Henrik Lundqvist's job easier. The entire weight of the team has been put back on his shoulder's with the injury to Martin Biron, but he has gotten more rest this season than he is used to and is still playing as dominantly as ever. The Rangers are a much better road team; they are sub-.500 at Madison Square Garden, and they have 7 games apiece left at home and on the road.
Key games:  3/9 @ Anaheim, 3/12 @ San Jose, 3/18 vs. Montreal, 3/20 @ Pittsburgh, 3/26 @ Boston, 3/30 @ Buffalo, 4/3 @ Philadelphia, 4/4 vs. Boston, 4/9 vs. New Jersey

8. Buffalo Sabres (72, 17, Won 2, 5-3-2)
playoffs: in the hunt, holding on to a spot
After an extremely slow start to the season, tj Sabres have found their game. They have been playing strong hockey of late, and have recently supplanted Carolina for the last playoff position. Since being picked up by Buffalo, Brad Boyes has been paying off, and the only subtraction the Sabres made to their roster was Criag Rivet, who was not playing anyway. The Sabres are starting to come together at the right time. If they remain hot, they could be a dangerous challenger to a higher-seeded team in the postseason, as they have a better record on the road. It's too soon to think about that though; with a tough remaining schedule, right now they are still fighting for survival and 9 of their last 17 contests are at home, where the Sabres have not been particularly sharp this season.
Key games: 3/8 @ Pittsburgh, 3/10 @ Boston, 3/12 @ Toronto, 3/15 vs. Carolina, 3/20 vs. Nashville, 3/22 @ Montreal, 3/26 vs. New Jersey, 3/29 @ Toronto, 3/30 vs. NY Rangers, 4/2 @ Washington, 4/3 @ Carolina, 4/5 vs. Tampa Bay, 4/8 vs. Philadelphia, 4/9 @ Columbus

9. Carolina Hurricanes (71, 16, Lost 1, 5-4-1)
playoffs: in the hunt, could make it
Led by the hockey world's Justin Bieber, rookie scoring sensation Jeff Skinner, the Hurricanes have held on to the 8th spot in the East for a while now. But they have been recently tossed aside by Buffalo and are eager to take their playoff spot back. A team that is historically good in the playoffs, the Hurricanes could be dangerous should they manage to clinch a spot. If they can turn their game up a notch, they will have the 8th spot locked up, but they need a strong finish. They have a solid, decenlty talented, hard-working team who can shock dominant opponents. They have been a very good home team this year, and the fans in Carolina are in a hockey mood after the All-Star game this year. The Canes have the enviable situation of being a strong home team with 10 of their last 16 games at home. Also, 7 of the last 16 games are against familiar divisional opponents. The odds seem to be in Carolina's favor, but they will still need to play excellent hockey to stay alive in this tight race.
Key games: 3/11 @ Washington, 3/12 vs. Columbus, 3/15 @ Buffalo, 3/16 vs. Toronto, 3/25 @ Tampa Bay, 3/26 vs. Tampa Bay, 3/29 @ Washington, 3/30 vs. Montreal, 4/3 vs. Buffalo, 4/6 vs. Detroit, 4/9 vs. Tampa Bay

10. Toronto Maple Leafs (67, 16, Lost 1, 6-1-3)
playoffs: in the hunt, could make it
The Maple Leafs are a team currently in a very good situation. They made a bunch of trades leading up to the Trade Deadline in a season that seemed lost. Their roster isn't particularly impressive. Still, they are somehow only 5 points out of a playoff spot and are playing some great hockey. They are a team with absolutely nothing to lose, and they will go all out to try to clinch a very surprising playoff berth. They have a young team who will gain some experience through winning games, winning enough games will earn them a playoff spot, and the best part is they don't have a draft pick to worry about. Some weak teams would not have a prblem playing poorly, because a bad record yields a high draft pick. But the Leafs pick is owned by Boston, who already took Tyler Seguin with Toronto's pick last year. The position of the pick means nothing to the Leafs and they have nothing holding them back from making a strong playoff push. Even if they don't make the playoffs, they can spoil some teams' records, and they have also shown that the future looks bright for the blue crew.

11. Atlanta Thrashers (65, 16, Won 1, 3-6-1)
playoffs: in the hunt, likely will not make it
Though they are only 7 points out of 8th, it doesn't look good for the Thrashers this season. After a strong start, the Thrashers are fading fast, which is evident when looking at All-Star Dustin Byfuglien's 13-game scoring drought. Still, they cannot totally be counted out of the playoffs yet, unless they keep playing the way they have been lately. They need to win big and win often, and do it now if they want to make the playoffs. The Thrash have an extremely difficult schedule ahead of them and only 6 of their last 16 games are at home. The Thrashers just don't seem to have what it takes to make the playoffs this year. But they have a great wealth of young talent in the system mixed with some decent veterans. They made some good pickups this year that should help them in the very near future. Look for them to be a much better team next year.
Key games: 3/9 @ Carolina, 3/11 vs. New Jersey, 3/12 @ Philadelphia, 3/15 @ New Jersey, 3/17 vs. Philadelphia, 3/19 @ Buffalo, 3/25 vs. Vancouver, 3/29 @ Montreal, 3/31 @ Philadelphia, 4/2 @ Boston, 4/5 @ Nashville, 4/7 vs. NY Rangers, 4/8 vs. Carolina, 4/10 vs. Pittsburgh

12. New Jersey Devils (64, 17, Won 4, 9-1-0)
playoffs: in the hunt, could make it
The Devils continue to shock the hockey world with this unprecented climb from the depths of the standings. At this point, it is both hard to believe that they will make the playoffs, and hard to believe that they won't. Led by a different looking Ilya Kovalchuk, the Devils have been a winning machine for over a month now and have rocketed from last place to within 8 points of 8th place with 17 games to go. Still, they are not gaining ground as quickly as you'd expect of a team that's picked up so many points in such a short amount of time. With the way they have been winning games, it is hard to believe they are not a shoe-in for the playoffs; but one of 6 teams fighting for 2 spots in the eastern playoffs, they still pretty much have to win out the rest of the season to clinch an historic playoff berth. If they can continue this run, they should be all set, but if they tire and burn out, they can kiss their short-lived playoff dreams goodbye.They have 9 home and 8 road games remaining. The odds are against the Devils, but they've been against them every game for the past few months, and so far they've proven everyone wrong.
Key games: 3/18 vs. Washington, 3/20 @ Columbus, 3/22 @ Boston, 3/25 @ Pittsburgh, 3/26 @ Buffalo, 4/1 vs. Philadelphia, 4/2 vs. Montreal, 4/5 @ Pittsburgh, 4/6 vs. Toronto, 4/9 @ NY Rangers, 4/ 10 vs. Boston


13. Florida Panthers (61, 16, NR Loss, 2-6-2)
playoffs: out
Another year, another let-down for the Panthers. 11 points out of a playoff spot with 16 games to go and a 2-6-2 record in their last 10, the Panthers have virtually no chance of making the playoffs. They will continue to develop their young talent in this last month of the season, but will hope to achieve another top 5 draft pick in June. There is not much motivation to win games anymore. There is a wealth young talent in the system, but the team is still a ways off from being competetive and will be conservative with development. Dale Tallon built the Championship Blackhawk team in Chicago, and knows what he is doing in Florida as well. He just needs some time.

14. New York Islanders (60, 15, NR Loss, 4-3-3)
playoffs: out
The Islanders have been playing very well lately. They have a young team who has been on a scoring mission and has been handing out physical punishment in the process. They have no chance of making the palyoffs, but will continue to play as well as they can to get these younger players experience and confidence. They definitely will have another top 10 pick, if not a top 5, so why not score some goals and try to spoil some teams' playoff hopes while they wait for the summer? They are on the brink of being a highly-competitive team, with a very talented young offensive core, and should work on their defense over the summer. But for now, they should just enjoy the ride.

15. Ottawa Senators (53, 17, Lost 1, 5-4-1)
playoffs: out
The Senators have had an absolutely abysmal season which culminated in Bryan Murray's recent firesale. As the smoke clears, very little remains on the once-mighty Ottawa roster and with lots of picks and prospects in the system, Ottawa looks to the draft and free agency to help bring back their winning form. The turn-around begins in Minnesota in late June, and right now, the Senators are pretty much guaranteed a top 5 draft pick. With the lottery, the top pick is not certain, but the team with the worst record certainly has the best chance of geting it. The Senators don't care about winning games anymore. They care about getting that top pick, and getting some of their younger prospects some experience in the last 17 games of this campaign.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Deadline Day

The day is finally here, 3 pm today is the deadline for trading in the NHL. Typically there is a flurry of moves just before the deadline, which gradual becomes know in the hours following 3pm. Whether or not this happens today remains to be seen, but we've seen a few deals, signings, and claims already in the past 24 hours, so hopefully there will be more to follow. I will be posting updates about transactions of the day as I become aware of them, as well as giving my analyses of the deals.

Anaheim receives W Brad Winchester from St. Louis for 2012 3rd-round pick. Winchester is a hard-working winger who will help out Anaheim with his defensive skills much more than his offensive. He will likely be a fourth-line winger.


Calgary receives W Fredrik Modin from Atlanta for 2011 7th-round pick. Kind of hard to lose on this one. Calgary has been on a tear lately and will likely make the playoffs. With the recent surge, Jay Feaster didn't want to touch the team's chemistry. He gave up only a 7th-round pick to take a risk on Modin, who will likely fill a depth role with the Flames, as well as bring some experience for a Cup run. An aging wing, he may have lost something off his booming slapshot, which has contributed to his drop-off in goal production over the last few years. But Modin is still a decent thrid or fourth liner, who has a Cup victory under his belt (AGAINST the Flames).

Washington acquires C Jason Arnott from New Jersey for C David Steckel and 2nd-round pick. After a lot of talk, Washington has finally landed that second line center they so desperately needed. The 36-year-old Arnott is a strong two-way center, who can score goals and help on in his own zone as well. He has a ton of experience which helps a very young and inexperienced Capitals team. He has 30 goals and 66 points in 106 playoff games, which will be valuable to a team who has struggled in the postseason. Steckel is a decent depth centerman who will hope to contribute defensively for an insanely hot New Jersey team.

Montreal receives G Drew MacIntyre from Atlanta for D Brett Festerling. Festerling is still a young defenseman at age 24, but at most will bring some depth to Atlanta's D.

Vancouver receives C Max Lapierre and F MacGregor Sharp from Anaheim for F Joel Perrault and 3rd-round pick.With his third team this season, Lapierre will also fill a depth role for the powerful Canucks. He is a solid fourth-liner, who can put a few pucks in the net and is skilled as a pest as well. Perrault could see some time as a fourth line center in Anaheim.

Vancouver receives W Chris Higgins from Florida for F Evan Oberg and 3rd-round pick. Higgins has just landed with his fifth team in the past 3 seasons, but was a 20-goal scorer for the three seasons before that. In 48 games this year who has 11 goals, and most impressively, was a +5 for one of the weakest defensive teams in the league. He is a solid contributer in the right situation and should be valuable in a depth role for the league-leading Canucks.

New York Rangers receive C John Mitchell and 2012 7th-round pick from Toronto for 7th-round pick. Mitchell has seen limited playing tim this season for the lackluster Maple Leafs. Still, he scored a respectable 12 goals two years ago in his rookie season, and if he doesn't crack the lineup in New York, he should at least be a solid addition to the Hartford Wolf Pack.

Los Angeles acquires W Dustin Penner from Edmonton for D Colten Teubert, 2011 1st round pick, and conditional 2012 3rd-round pick. This is likely the biggest catch of the day. The price was huge, but the payoff could prove Cup worthy for the Kings. Part of the tightly-packed and surging Pacific Division, the Kings have been playing well, and are adding a very talented scorer to an already formidable offense. Penner has 21 goals this year, and had 32 last year, with an umipressive supporting cast in Edmonton. He now joins a lineup that boasts Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams, Dustin Brown, and Ryan Smyth, all of whom have exactly 20 goals, plus Jarret Stoll who is not far behind with 17. That means the Kings will likely end the season with six 20-goal scorers. When every player on your top two lines scored twenty goals in a season, opposing goalies need to be at the top of their game to compete. The top two lines would likely be Kopitar centering Penner and Brown, with Stoll centering Smyth and Williams. That's a scary lineup. Meanwhile, Edmonton continues to stockpile young talent. They receive Colten Teubert, a 20-year-old blueliner, who was the 13th overall pick in 2008, plus an additional 1st-round pick in this years draft to add onto their already likely second consecutive 1st overall pick.

Carolina receives D Bryan Allen from Florida for W Sergei Samsonov. With the loss of Ian White, Allen should fill in nicely as a defensive defenseman for Carolina. Once a solid, mid 20's goal-scorer, the now 32-year-old has never quite lived up to his Rookie of the Year potential and has seen his production drop off massively since leaving the Bruins. Now with his 6th team since the lockout, Samsonov will look to bounce back with a young team hungry for goals.

Chicago receives D Chris Campoli and conditional 7th-round pick from Ottawa for F Ryan Potulny and conditional 2011 2nd-round pick. Chicago was looking for a penalty killing, 3rd-pair defenseman. I'm not sure if he fits the role of a penalty killer, but Campoli is definitely a solid 3rd pair D, who can contribute decent offensive numbers as well. Potulny hasn't had much NHL action, but did score 15 goals in 64 games for Edmonton last year. He should see some playing time in Ottawa, who's lineup with the recent fire sale is looking more like the Binghamton Senators every day.

Columbus receives W Scottie Upshall and D Sami Lepisto from Phoenix for D Rostislav Klesla and F Dane Byers. Columbus is on a hot streak, but still might not make the playoffs. They wanted to add some talent, without giving up any overly important cogs. Klesla was the longest-tenured Jacket, and has had a solid season. He will bring some defensive depth the hot Coyotes. The Coyotes, who are not overly offensively talented, gave up a lot offensively. On ateam that's been scoring by committee, Upshall has 16 goals, and should bring solid third-line numbers to Columbus. Lepisto's numbers are similar to Klesla's so the trade-off is about even for Klesla's spot on the roster. I'd say the Blue Jackets are the clear winners on this deal.

Washington receives D Dennis Wideman from Florida for F Jake Hauswirth and 2011 3rd-round pick. Florida continues their fire sale by shipping off Wideman, who was acquired over the summer with picks for Nathan Horton and Greg Campbell, to Washington, who was looking for some stability on the back end. Wideman is a solid offensive defenseman who should couple nicely with scoring machine Mike Green, but Washington still needs a second line center and some defensive talent.

Buffalo receives W Brad Boyes from St. Louis for 2011 2nd-round pick. Buffalo is looking for something to push them over the edge and make them a playoff team. Brad Boyes played all 82 games in the 3 seasons for St. Louis. He scored 43 goals. Then 33. Then 14. The Sabres are hoping a change of scenery will return Boyes to his 40-goal form.

Atlanta receives W Radek Dvorak and 2011 5th-round pick from Florida for W Niclas Bergfors and W Patrick Rissmiller. Save one random offensive explosion where he scored 31 goals for the Rangers in 2000-01, Dvorak had another 20-goal season in his 15 years in the league. Still, he can contribute decent offensive numbers and he brings a veteran presence to a young Thrashers team. Bergfors, 23, has plenty of time to reach his vast offensive potential with the rebuilding Panthers, which he proved last season with a 21-goal rookie campaign between the Devils and Thrashers.

Ottawa claims G Curtis McElhinney from Tampa Bay. McElhinney has had a crazy week. He started off in Anaheim, then had to leave and head South and all the way across the country to go to Tampa Bay. NOW he's headed way north to Ottawa. With newly acquired Craig Anderson playing well so far for the Sens, that puts McElhinney as the backup, as young Robin Lehner was just sent to the AHL.

Atlanta claims W Rob Schremp from New York Islanders. Schremp is a talented young winger, who may see a surge in offense in Atlanta. Extremely gifted with the puck, Schremp showed off his dangling skills a few years back in the AHL Skills Competition. After 3 seasons and only 7 games played with Edmonton, he was picked up by the Islanders last season, where he scored 7 goals and 25 points in 44 games. This season with the Isles, Schremp had 10 goals and 22 points in 45 games, but was a -19 when he was placed on waivers. He has the offensive potential, but with the struggling defensive game of the Thrashers right now, he needs to play better in his own end.

Calgary claims D Brett Carson from Carolina. After playing 54 games last season with Carolina, Carson has only seen action 13 times in this campaign. At age 25, he still has plenty of time to emerge as a decent top-4 defenseman, but for now, he will just fill a depth role with the surging Flames.

Atlanta signs D Mark Stuart to 3-year, $5.1 mil extension. Stuie saw limited playing time with the Bruins this season after getting injured. He joins his old Bruins assistant coach Craig Ramsey in Atlanta, and should thrive under his system. Despite recent injury woes, Stuart should bring some defensive stability to a more offensively talented defensive corps in Atlanta. He is tough as nails, will fight when he has to, and is a good shut-down guy when his game is on.

Detroit signs G Jimmy Howard to 2-year, $4.5 mil extension. Coming off an outstanding rookie season where he went 37-15-10 with a .926 save percentage and a 2.26 GAA in 63 games and was a nominee for the Calder Trophy, Howard has seen his numbers drop off in his sophomore season. But despite his .908 SV% and 2.79 GAA, he is leading the NHL with 30 wins. With a team like the Red WIngs around you, a goalie can get by without stellar numbers, but Howard has the capability of playing much, much better, which makes the Red WIngs a very scary opponent.

Los Angeles signs W Justin Williams to 4-year, $14.6 mil extension. Williams is a former 30-goal scorer and was a key chip in the Carolina Hurricanes Stanley Cup team a few years back. After having his last few seasons derailed by injury, Williams is having a comeback season, with 20 goals, 49 points, and is a +14 in 62 games with the Kings this season. He has played every game this season, a feat he hasn't come clos to since 2006-07. With his newfound health, the 29-year-old Williams should continue to cintribute offensively for the Kings fro the next few years.

Ottawa signs D Chris Phillips to 3-year, $9.5 mil extension. Considered one of the hottest items on the trade market, Chris Phillips opted to stay in Ottawa to help mentor the young players during the rebuilding process rather than accept a move to a contender. Phillips is a strong shut-down defenseman with great leadership and his presence should be beneficial for those younger players coming into the organization.

Chicago signs D Brent Seabrook to 5-year, $29 mil extension. The Blackhawks have had cap problems and are careful to keep a specific core of players. While the team falls apart around them, the hope is that these players will be a stable foundation for the team to build and rebuild around, and hopefully stay in contention, for the next few years. Seabrook is a talented young defenseman who was a key member of the Cup team last year, and should continue to make a big impact on the Chicago franchise.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

So They Claim

With the Trade Deadline now two days away, several teams have been clearing cap space by placing underperforming players on waivers. So far today, three players have been picked up by contending teams. Trades continue here and there as well.

New York Rangers receive D Bryan McCabe from Florida for W Tim Kennedy and 2011 3rd round pick. The Rangers are looking to turn their play around and keep hold of their current playoff position. With a young blue line led by Marc Staal, the Rangers pick up an aging puck-moving defenseman, who should help mentor the younger players. He was Florida's captain and will bring valuable leadership to the Blueshirts. Florida continues their mission of shipping off their veterans for young talent and prospects. Tim Kennedy had 10 goals and 26 points in his rookie season for the Sabres last year, along with 3 points in 6 playoff games. The Sabres declined to pick up his arbitration reward in the offseason and he was picked up for the Rangers, who kept him in the minors. He has some potential and should get a chance to play more in the young Florida system.

Columbus claims D Criag Rivet from Buffalo. This could be a brilliant move for a resurgent Columbus squad. Still pushing for their first playoff appearance ever, the Blue Jackets have been a roll lately, partly thanks to the explosive goal-scorer, including last night's hat trick, of call-up Max Calvert. With an unimpressive and young blue line, Columbus now brings in some great leadership and experience on the back end in the form of a fallen defenseman looking to redeem himself. In a bold move, Lindy Ruff sat his captain when the Sabres weren't playing well, and Rivet has been benched ever since. Rivet will be a solid contributer to the Blue Jackets, but they should still look for additional help.

Washington claims W Marco Sturm from Los Angeles. Still recovering from a devastating injury suffered in the playoffs last year with Boston, Marco Sturm still hasn't really found his game since returning to play with the Kings. If Sturm can return to form, he is a a proven 25-goal scorer, whose speed should fit in well with the Capitals system. They still need a dependable second line center, but Sturm is a gamble that could prove valuable.

Philadelphia claims D Nick Boynton from Chicago. After seeing little playing time for the Cup champs last year, Boynton  has gotten more ice time this year, but the Blackhawks haven't been playing so well this year and shedding Boynton clears a small amount of cap space and leaves a spot open for younger developping D-men. The Blackhawks are looking for a shut-down defenseman who can play on the PK and this leaves some space to do that. The Flyers have one of the most solid defensive corps in the game, but with top defender Chris Pronger and seventh man Oskars Bartulis injured, Boynton will likely see some playing time with the remaining group of Braydon Coburn, Kimmo Timonen, Andrej Meszaros, Sean O'Donnell, and Matt Carle, and when Pronger returns, will be solid injury insurance for the playoffs. Boynton's play has been down over the last few years, but reuniting with former Bruins teammate Sean O'Donnell could help him find his game.