Thursday, July 25, 2013

Speculation of Movement of Remaining Free Agents

This has been a very odd offseason in terms of free agents. Normally, there are a flurry of moves on the first day, and still a decent amount on the next few days. Most if not all of the big names are gone by day 5 or so, leaving a few minor signing here and there for the rest of the summer. This year however, it has been quite different. There were a ton of signings the first day, and there has been almost nothing overly significant since then. A lot of big names are still out there and it doesn't seem as though they'll be signing anytime soon. For me this is awful, because I'll still be checking rumors and Twitter buzz all summer and get nothing from it. I would prefer everyone going at once to this, and in a best case scenario, four or five guys going a day steadily all summer.

So to keep me occupied, I have speculated on team's targets and player's destinations. I took a look at players under contract for each team to put together their depth charts and identify their needs. Then I took a look at remaining free agents and determined what players would fill those needs and also be good fits on that team or in that city. Next I went team by team and picked the top 5 targets each team should go after if I were the GM, and then the top 5 destinations where each player would fit in. Below is what I came up with. Note: I totally ignored RFAs for this. I left them off the rosters as if they were nonexistant, so many of these teams needs will shift when they get their RFAs signed.

For now here's just the Targets Section:

TOP 5 TARGETS FOR EACH TEAM

Anaheim Ducks
Needs: 2nd line center, forward depth, defensive depth
Targets: Kyle Wellwood, Cam Barker, Colby Armstrong, Jerred Smithson, Tom Poti

Arizona Coyotes
Needs: top six wings, forward depth, scoring
Targets: Chad LaRose, Peter Mueller, Kyle Wellwood, Guillaume Latendresse, Brad Boyes

Boston Bruins
Needs: 3rd line wing
Targets: Chad LaRose, Brad Boyes, Brenden Morrow, Damien Brunner, Daniel Cleary

Buffalo Sabres
Needs: top 6 center, top 6 wing, defense
Targets: Toni Lydman, Matthew Lombardi, Tom Gilbert, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Brenden Morrow

Calgary Flames
Needs: top 6 forwards, defense, goalie
Targets: Toni Lydman, Ilya Bryzgalov, Steve Montador, Tom Gilbert, Marc-Andre Bergeron

Carolina Hurricanes
Needs: forward depth, defense
Targets: Ian White, Brenden Morrow, Tom Poti, Vinny Prospal, Matthew Lombardi

Chicago Blackhawks
Needs: nothing
Targets: nobody

Colorado Avalanche
Needs: 4th line, wings, defense
Targets: Tom Gilbert, Mark Fistric, Brad Boyes, Toni Lydman, Guillaume Latendresse

Columbus Blue Jackets
Needs: top 9 forwards, defense
Targets: Tom Gilbert, Mark Fistric, Kyle Wellwood, Mark Eaton, Guillaume Latendresse

Dallas Stars
Needs: top 6 wing, forward depth
Targets: Damien Brunner, Mason Raymond, Daniel Cleary, Brad Boyes, Kaspars Daugavins

Detroit Red Wings
Needs: above average defensemen, depth scoring
Targets: Toni Lydman, Tom Gilbert, Chad LaRose, Kyle Wellwood, Guillaume Latendresse

Edmonton Oilers
Needs: defense, goalie
Targets: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Toni Lydman, Tom Poti, Ian White, Roman Hamrlik

Florida Panthers
Needs: scoring
Targets: Kaspars Daugavins, Brad Boyes, Chuck Kobasew, Guillaume Latendresse, Alexei Ponikarovsky

Los Angeles Kings
Needs: top 6 wing, forward depth
Targets: Chad LaRose, Damien Brunner, Daniel Cleary, Brenden Morrow, Brad Boyes

Minnesota Wild
Needs: top 6 wing, top 6 center, top 4 defensemen
Targets: Mark Fistric, Douglas Murray, Vinny Prospal, Ian White, Damien Brunner

Montreal Canadiens
Needs: scoring depth
Targets: Guillaume Latendresse, Chad LaRose, Kaspars Daugavins, Damien Brunner, Vinny Prospal

Nashville Predators
Needs: scoring
Targets: Chad LaRose, Damien Brunner, Vinny Prospal, Peter Mueller, Guillaume Latendresse

New Jersey Devils
Needs: top 6 center
Targets: Damien Brunner, Mikhail Grabovski, Matthew Lombardi, Nikolai Antropov, Scott Gomez

New York Islanders
Needs: top 6 forwards, defense, goalie
Targets: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Toni Lydman, Tom Gilbert, Steve Montador, Douglas Murray

New York Rangers
Needs: top 9 forwards, top 6 defensemen
Targets: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Ian White, Ryan Whitney, Guillaume Latendresse, Mason Raymond

Ottawa Senators
Needs: defense
Targets: Toni Lydman, Wade Redden, Mark Eaton, Tom Gilbert, Steve Montador

Philadelphia Flyers
Needs: depth wings
Targets: Chad LaRose, Steve Sullivan, Kaspars Daugavins, Chuck Kobasew, Peter Mueller

Pittsburgh Penguins
Needs: forward depth
Targets: Chad LaRose, Kaspars Daugavins, Colby Armstrong, Jerred Smithson, Kyle Wellwood

San Jose Sharks
Needs: 4th line
Targets: Chad LaRose, Colby Armstrong, David Steckel, Jerred Smithson, Kaspars Daugavins

St. Louis Blues
Needs: top 6 center
Targets: Kyle Wellwood, Tim Connolly, Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Antropov

Tampa Bay Lightning
Needs: 3rd line, 4th line wings, defense, goalie
Targets: Carlo Colaiacovo, Tom Gilbert, Tim Connolly, Kyle Wellwood, Chad LaRose

Toronto Maple Leafs
Needs: top 6 center, 4th line wings, defense
Targets: Ian White, Carlo Colaiacovo, Kyle Wellwood, Tom Gilbert, Mark Fistric

Vancouver Canucks
Needs: top 6 wing, top 9 forwards, top 6 defensemen
Targets: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Mark Fistric, Matthew Lombardi, Guillaume Latendresse, Ryan Whitney

Washington Capitals
Needs: top 6 forwards, defense, goalie
Targets: Mikhail Grabovski, Damien Brunner, Toni Lydman, Mason Raymond, Nikolai Antropov

Winnipeg Jets
Needs: 2nd line center, top 6 wings, forward depth, defense, goalie
Targets: Tom Gilbert, Brad Boyes, Vinny Prospal, Mark Eaton, Tim Connolly

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Regrouping and Retooling: Taking a Deep Breath and Calmly Analyzing the Bruins Big Moves

I'm a guy who loves hockey shirts, and loves when teams make a change to their jersey style, colors, or logo. The Dallas Stars have recently done all three, so earlier this week I decided to order one of the new Stars t-shirts. I had it down between a Jamie Benn shirt and a Loui Eriksson shirt, but Loui has been my favorite player on the Stars for a while, so I went with the Eriksson shirt. A few days later on the Fourth of July, I thought to myself, it'll be funny if Eriksson ends up getting traded and never actually plays a game in these jerseys. Well, as fate would have it, that thought would become a reality just a few hours later, as he was brought here to Boston in a shocking trade.

There are many changes happening to the Bruins roster right now, and using the word skeptical to describe many Bruins fans right now would be a bit of an understatement. I myself am still somewhat mad that the Bruins have already given up on the young and talented Tyler Seguin, but looking at all of these moves, if you take a step back and look at them without emotional attachment to the players, you may realize that the Bruins are just as good as before, and honestly might even be a stronger contender next year.

I'm gonna take a look at the players leaving versus the players coming in and give you my take on the situations, but first here is the Bruins depth chart from the end of the season, followed by my projected depth chart for next year based on the roster at the moment, to give a good sense of who is filling what spaces.

BRUINS 2012-13

Milan Lucic                    David Krejci                    Nathan Horton
Brad Marchand             Patrice Bergeron               Jaromir Jagr
Daniel Paille                   Chris Kelly                       Tyler Seguin
Shawn Thornton             Greg Campbell                 Rich Peverley
          Zdeno Chara                    Dennis Seidenberg
          Andrew Ference              Johnny Boychuk
          Adam McQuaid              Torey Krug
                    Rask
                    Khudobin

BRUINS PROJECTED 2013-14

Milan Lucic                    David Krejci                    Jarome Iginla
Brad Marchand             Patrice Bergeron               Loui Eriksson
Daniel Paille                   Carl Soderberg                Ryan Spooner
Shawn Thornton            Greg Campbell                 Chris Kelly
          Zdeno Chara                    Dennis Seidenberg
          Adam McQuaid               Johnny Boychuk
          Dougie Hamilton              Torey Krug
                    Rask
                    Svedberg

FORWARDS:
Add-Iginla, Eriksson, Soderberg, Spooner
Lose-Horton, Jagr, Seguin, Peverley

There are three big storylines among the forwards: the Tyler Seguin trade, Nathan Horton leaving, and the eventual acquisition of Jarome Iginla.

I was blown away when I first found out that Seguin was traded. I knew his name had been tossed around, but I assumed it was only in an attempt to give the kid some motivation. Most Bruins fans will always be skeptical of this move, and quite probably, it will be a regret in the future when Seguin develops into a star in the league. But he still may not, and in that case, this will be a great move. But, in the short term, this still is a great move if you really think about it. Essentially, this trade amounts to Tyler Seguin and Rich Peverley for Loui Eriksson and some prospects. Eriksson, will take the place of Seguin in the lineup, and should provide more consistent scoring in the short term than Seguin has been. While talented, Seguin did not perform well in the playoffs, so you are essentially replacing minimal scoring with a guy who has put up a few 70-point seasons, and was capable of consistently putting up 25-35 goals a year on a team that has not been very good for a while. Eriksson, who is also a great two-way player, is also a much better fit for the Bruins system than Seguin was. Seguin will likely become a big scorer in Dallas, but because of the Bruins style of play, I'm not so sure that he would have broken out as a scoring star with Boston. Eriksson, will likely move into Jagr's position on the right wing with Bergeron and Marchand, where Seguin had been previously. Meanwhile, the Bruins also gave up another player I liked a lot in Rich Peverley. But as much as he has been valuable for us in the past, he had a really poor season and was playing on the fourth line by the end of the playoffs. The Bruins have several young players who can step into his roster spot and contribute, the most likley of which is probably Ryan Spooner. Other candidates are Jordan Caron, Jared Knight, Carter Camper, Seth Griffith, and Alexander Khokhlachev. Rielly Smith and Matt Fraser, who are two solid young prospects acquired in this deal, will also fight for that position.
The Bruins were also surprised when Nathan Horton informed them that he would not be returning, instead seeking a quieter life in Columbus. As I stated in my last post, I think while Horton will be missed, he was also an inconsistent scorer, and I think Jarome Iginla will easily make up for the loss of his scoring. Jagr is gone too, so that's one more spot to take,and that will be filled by Carl Soderberg, who is a more promising player than he showed at the end of the year. Carl Soderberg was a great scorer in Europe and just needs a little time to get adjusted to the speed of the NHL.
As I said before, Jarome Iginla will have no problem filling the void of Nathan Horton. e is not as old as you would think, he's 36, the same age as Chara, and he has been carrying a team on his back for his entire career. He is more than capable of stepping up and contributing to a more well-rounded team, and was an important asset tot the Penguins, whether Bruins fans are aware of that or not. He struggled in the Boston series, but so did that entire team. And in regards to the unique situation of Iginla going to Boston after the deadline fiasco, Bruins fans need to suck it up and realize that this is an outstanding player, a future Hall of Famer, and a standup guy, whose only real crime is wanting to win his first Stanley Cup after a long and impressive career. If you asked any non-Bruins fan or player before the deadline whether Pittsburgh or Boston was the better contender, likely most of them would have said Pittsburgh, and also after a career of playing without a talented center, it is extremely hard to pass up the opportunity to play with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Iginla very correctly called those two the best players in the world when he went to Pittsburgh, and if you are a Bruins fan and try to deny that, than you need a serious reality check. So don't boo Iginla, cheer for him. He is a great player, and will be an outstanding fit for this team.

DEFENSE:
Add-Hamilton
Lose-Ference

Personally, I've never been a huge fan of Andrew Ference. He is an unbelievable guy and great in the community, so I wish him all the best, but to me he's just an okay defenseman. He makes some decent plays on occasion, but he also makes a lot of mistakes. Honestly his most valuable assets are heart and leadership and I feel great for the guy to be going back to play for his hometown team in Edmonton. But in Dougie Hamilton and Matt Bartkowski, the Bruins have two great defensive prospects who can step in and contribute right away. They can be just as good as Ference defensively while providing a lot more offense.

GOALIES:
Add-Svedberg
Lose-Khudobin

Anton Khudobin was a solid backup for the Bruins, but he did not play enough to be missed all that much by the Bruins. Niklas Svedberg had an outstanding season in Providence, and is more than capable of filling that role. New acquisition Chad Johnson is also a candidate for the backup job and was solid in relief of Mike Smith and Jason LaBarbera in Phoenix this year. Now all we need to do is get Rask signed........

So all in all, don't panic Bruins fans. The Bruins are still in great shape. I would still like them to add another bottom-six forward with that plays a hard-nosed game but still capable of providing some offense, but really, the B's will be very good again next year. Just don't boo Iginla, welcome Eriksson with open arms, and don't be bitter about losing the guys you've grown attached to. I think they will contend with the Red Wings to win the new division next year.

Monday, July 1, 2013

Welcome Back! 2013 Draft Reaction

After a period of little motivation spanning nearly two years, I have decided to start back up with the blog! I've been considering it for a while, but with the draft yesterday, and the uncertainty of the buyout and upcoming free agent period in the face of the lowering salary cap, I figured now would be as good a time as any to fire the old keyboard back up for some post-draft reaction.

SETH JONES FALLS TO NO. 4
One of the biggest stories leading up to and following the draft was Seth Jones. Highly-touted as one of the best all-around defensive prospects in years, many scouts had Jones ranked as the top player available, and certainly a top-two pick. It was originally expected that the Colorado Avalanche, who have several talented young forwards and plenty of centermen, but no truly outstanding blueliners, would be taking Jones first overall, but then words came around that they would instead be taking center Nathan MacKinnon. On draft day, the Avs made good on their word, taking MacKinnon, and then it seemed obvious that  Florida would take Jone with the next pick. To the surprise of many, Florida jumped down to the number four ranked player to take Aleksander Barkov. Tampa as expected initially stayed with their pick up forward Jonathan Drouin, which left Jones for Nashville.
Many may look at this as a case of teams having reservations about Jones. While this could be the case, I don't really think it was as much of a knock against Jones as it was teams choosing to fill needs over taking the best player available. Florida is starved for goals, so they took a talented and potentially NHL-ready forward. Tampa was likely to take Drouin all along and have a lot of high-potential or solid D-men already. In fact, I wouldn't have been all that surprised if Jones had slipped one more spot and gone to Carolina, because Nashville has always been a team that struggles to score goals, and needed a forward more than another defenseman. Still, David Poile loves building from the back end and has now added another great blueliner to an already solid defensive corps. And as it was, I don't think any of the remaining forwards would have been the type of scorer that would have been worth taking over Jones, outside of maybe Valeri Nichushkin, who slipped down to Dallas at tenth overall.

FLAMES PASS ON FUCALE
There have been a lot of instances this year when Flames GM Jay Feaster has left me shaking my head. To his credit, he made the smart move of keeping all three of his first round picks for the rebuild. On the other hand, I could not believe that he did not use one of those three picks to take Zachary Fucale. Right now, the Flames top goalie for next year would be Joey MacDonald, a career backup and journeyman, and behind him there are several decent but not outstanding goaltending prospects. Craig Button said that he has never seen a goalie at the ages of 16 and 17 dominate a league like Fucale has, and many scouts said of him "all he does is win." With three chances to pick in the first round and a serious goaltending need, it seemed like a no-brainer that Calgary would have taken Fucale. After making the obvious choice of Sean Monahan at number six, Feaster instead jumped way off the board to take Emile Poirier, and then after took Morgan Klimchuk, leaving Fucale to be snatched up by the Canadiens in the second round. While Calgary needed forwards, I have a hard time believing using all three picks on forwards and not taking Fucale was a smart move.

TYLER SEGUIN AND NATHAN HORTON
There have been a surprising number of rumors about Tyler Seguin being on the trading block. I believe this to be more of an attempt at sending a message to Seguin that he needs to be better for the Bruins than it is about dumping him. While they could certainly bring in a large number of assets while clearing a decent amount of cap space, I don't believe it would be in the Bruins best interests to give up on Seguin so early. He has had some pretty bad stretches, but has also shown that he can be an outstanding player when he is hot, and maybe this will help give him some extra motivation next season.
Supposedly, the talks about Seguin cooled after Nathan Horton said that he would not re-sign with the Bruins. While I will be sad to see Horton go, I was actually kind of hoping they would not bring him back. Horton has great character and is a fan favorite, but I do have a few knocks against him. He is going to be overpaid, and it is not merited thanks to his production and his injury history. While he has scored some big goals for the Bruins and puts up some decent numbers, he is extremely streaky. I often don't notice him on the ice unless he is the one who scored a goal, which I guess means he doesn't do anything that bad, but it also means he isn't making many plays. He has been valuable in the playoffs, but so has David Krejci, and I would be interested to see what the playmaking Krejci can do if a sniper is added on his line, rather than two power forwards. The Bruins also have many promising forward prospects, like Jared Knight, Ryan Spooner, Alex Khokhlachev, and Seth Griffith, and the loss of Horton will help give them a chance to step in and contribute.

SCHNEIDER TO NEW JERSEY

In the most surprising move of the day, Vancouver ended their long goaltending debate by trading the goalie who was supposed to be their number one goalie. Roberto Luongo, much to his probable chagrin, will once again be the guy in goal for the Canucks while Cory Schneider will be suiting up for the New Jersey Devils. This was an outstanding move for New Jersey and a little bit of a head-scratcher for Vancouver.
New Jersey is getting a guy who is a potential elite goaltender who will be able to take the reigns of the most consistently-filled net in the NHL once Martin Brodeur retires, and Schneider will get at least one year of platooning with arguably the best goalie to ever play the game. For the first time, it appears the Devils have a long-term plan for the post-Brodeur era.
Meanwhile, Vancouver will now be utilizing a goalie who has been waiting to leave for over a year and has been very unhappy in Vancouver. Perhaps the new coach John Tortorella can motivate him. A lot of pressure will be on new Canuck prospect Bo Horvat. Schneider brought the Canucks a surprisingly low return, just one first round pick, and that pick was used immediately on Horvat, so the trade was essentially Schneider for Horvat straight-up. So it'll likely be a few years before we see whether or not this was a trade worth it for the Canucks. Horvat is a strong-tow way player with tons of promise. He is underappreciated in a now famous clip of London Knights teammate Max Domi making a between-the-legs pass. TO many it goes unnoticed that Horvat scores on the play, one-timing the slick pass out of the air into the roof of the net. That is unbelievable hand-eye coordination and a real good sign for a scout. Coast to coast flash in a junior league can be hard to project to the NHL because the competition is at such a higher-level, but that kind of pinpoint hand skill is something translatable to any league.

OVERACHIEVERS

Here are my picks for two players that teams will wish they had picked earlier.

Jonathan Drouin. Drouin was picked number three overall by Tampa Bay. While saying the Panthers and Avalanche will wished they had picked him could be a stretch because Barkov and MacKinnon will be such players, I personally thought Drouin was the best player in this draft. He was MacKinnon's teammate and scored many more goals and many more assists than him, and was also the MVP of the CHL. From the clips I saw of Drouin, I thought he was far more impressive. The biggest knock on him is his size, but he is now going to a team with the king of all underachieving small forwards in Martin St. Louis.
Hunter Shinkaruk. Shinkaruk is a similar story to Drouin. He is a goal-scorer who put up a boat load of points, though he played for an underachieving Medicine Hat team, while Drouin played for the Memorial Cup-winning Halifax Mooseheads with Nathan Mackinnon and Zachary Fucale. He's not a big kid, but he looks to have a lot of skill and energy, and should be a very promising scoring prospect for the Canucks, He was projected to go anywhere between about 8th and 16th overall, but fell to 24th.

CHICAGO SALARY DUMP

Just days after winning the Cup, the Blackhawks have begun their salary sump. Dave Bolland, who scored the Cup winning goal was sent to Toronto for picks, and well-like penalty-killer Michal Frolik was sent to Winnipeg. While it is hard to see good character guys go from a championship team, it is a necessary part of the business that is professional hockey, and the Hawks will survive. They still have an outstanding core of players, and they have already survived this once. After winning the Stanley Cup in 2010, the Hawks were in a cap crunch and lost three important players in Antti Niemi, Dustin Byfuglien, and Andrew Ladd. But they kept the strongest parts of their core together in Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, and Niklas Hjalmarsson, and won the Cup again only a few seasons later. All of those players are still on the team, for now at least, and the Hawks should continue to be a real threat to win the Cup for years to come.