Monday, March 14, 2011

Wild West

WESTERN CONFERENCE:
This Conference ain't big enough for the 12 of us. But seriously....
There are 15 teams in each Conference, and of these, only 8 make the playoffs. There are 12 teams that could make the playoffs, same as the East. The difference is how incredibly close the race is here; 3rd place and 11th place or separated by only 9 points. For a while now, this has been a Conference where a team could be in 12th place one night, and then in 4th a night later. Any team not based out of Detroit or Vancouver pretty much needs to play their best hockey of the year from now till season's end to guarantee a playoff berth, and it's quite possible that all 5 teams in the Pacific Division could make the playoffs. Teams will need to play especially well against this division to try to make room for themselves in the postseason.When virtually every game from now until the playoffs is a game-in-hand between two clubs fighting for a playoff spot, you can expect a crazy finish to this season.

1. Vancouver Canucks (Points: 99, Games Left: 12, Streak: Won 5, Record in Last 10 Games: 7-3-0)
playoffs: safe
The Canucks are a not only the clear winners of their division, but they are also the clear leaders of the Conference, and likely the League. They are virtually unstoppable this season, and continue to impress despite a massive hole in their blue line. With full health, the Canucks boast 3 of the league's leading scorers, one of the league's strongest defenses, an elite goaltender, and an outstanding young back-up. The Canucks have all the tools to engineer a Stanley Cup victory, but plenty of number one team's have failed to take home the sports world's greatest chalice. The Canucks have been consistent all year long and show no signs of slowing down. They are pretty much locks for the President's Trophy this year. They are equally deadly at home and on the road, and have 6 games left for each.

2. Detroit Red Wings (90, 13, Won 2, 4-4-2)
playoffs: safe
The Red Wings are one of only two teams in their Conference who I can safely say will make the playoffs, and with 8 points separating them and the Blackhawks, they are also one of only two teams in the league who I can safely say will win their Division (barring a monumental collapse, of course). Year in and year out the Red Wings are impressive, and now that their lineup has returned to health, they are as dangerous as ever. They have plenty of playoff experience and are always a threat to take home the Cup. They have 8 home games and 5 road games still to play. They are good anywhere, but are particularly outstanding on the road.

3. San Jose Sharks (86, 13, NR Loss, 7-1-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
As will be stated several times in this post, the Pacific Divsion is ridiculously close. Pacific teams hold the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th seeds at the moment, and Anaheim is only 2 points out of 8th. Every one of these teams could make the playoffs. Or potentially only 2. Each of these teams needs to play their best hockey of the season from now until the final whistle, as points are sorely needed and the Pacific Division is jam-packed with games-in-hand from now until mid-April. Not even the Sharks are safe. They currently hold the top spot in the division thanks to a recent surge, and if they keep up their strong play, they will keep their spot. But with so many teams breathing down each other's necks, nobody is truly safe until April 11. The Sharks have one of the biggest stockpiles of fearsome scorers in the league, with a top line of Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, and Dany Heatley, as well as strong secondary scorers Joe Pavelski, Ryane Clowe, Devin Setoguchi, and rookie standout Logan Couture. With last year's Cup winner Antti Niemi between the pipes, the Nabakov era is over in San Jose, as they hope to end a decade of playoff disappointment. They have 7 remaining home games and 6 games left away from the Shark Tank. Amazingly, their last 8 games are against Pacific Division team, as well as 9 of these last 13 games. They play each of their divisional rivals twice, plus a third game against Phoenix. If the Sharks go on a tear for the rest of the season, they could put some serious distance between them and their divisonal competition.
Key games: 3/14 @ Chicago, 3/15 @ Dallas, 3/17 vs Minnesota, 3/23 vs Calgary, 3/24 @ Los Angeles, 3/26 @ Phoenix, 3/31 vs Dallas, 4/2 vs Anaheim, 4/4 vs Los Angeles, 4/6 @ Anaheim, 4/8 @ Phoenix, 4/9 vs Phoenix

4. Los Angeles Kings (83, 13, Won 3, 7-2-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
With the trade deadline acquisition of Dustin Penner powering an already potent offense, the Kings have moved into 4th place and look to be in fine shape. Or they would, if not for the 8 teams biting at their tails. In most seasons, a team in fourth this late in the seasons would be very close to clicnhing a playoff berth. But this year, the Western Conference is packed like sardines and the smallest slip could make or break any team's season. If the Kings continue their current tear, they should hold their ground in the standings and may go deep in the playoffs. They have 6 20-goal forwards in Penner, Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, Ryan Smyth, Jarret Stoll, and Anze Kopitar, a solid defense anchored by young blueliners Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson as well as former Stanley Cup-winning Penguin Rob Scuderi, and an outstanding goaltender in Jonathan Quick. A better home team, the Kings play 8 of their final 13 games at the Staples Center, and face divisional rivals 7 more times, including each of their last five games. These last 5 games will be as important to the entire rest of the division as it will be to the Kings. They will face the Ducks 3 more times and the Sharks 2 more times.
Key games: 3/15 @ Nashville, 3/19 vs Anaheim, 3/21 vs Calgary, 3/24 vs San Jose, 3/31 @ Vancouver, 4/2 vs Dallas, 4/4 @ San Jose, 4/6 vs Phoenix, 4/8 @ Anaheim, 4/9 vs Anaheim

5. Phoenix Coyotes (83, 12, Won 2, 4-4-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
Like a lot of teams in the Western race, the Coyotoes recently put together an impressive streak. But they have been average since then and if not for their 8-game winning streak, would be a lot further down the standings. They need something to spark their team. Maybe that lies in the coach; Dave Tippett was last year's coach of the year. Hopefully he can inspire some fire in the Coyotes, or they'll find themselves watching games instead of playing them come April. 7 of their remaining 12 games are at home, including a 6-game home-stand. 5 of their last 6 games are against fellow closely-packed Pacific Division teams, including 3 against current division leader San Jose. That final stretch is going to be crucial for not for every team in that division.
Key games: 3/15 @ Calgary, 3/18 @ Vancouver, 3/20 vs Chicago, 3/24 vs Columbus, 3/26 vs San Jose, 3/29 vs Dallas, 4/6 @ Los Angeles, 4/8 vs San Jose, 4/9 @ San Jose

6. Dallas Stars (82, 13, Lost 1, 6-2-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
After a few down seasons, the Stars found themselves leading their division earlier this season. Brad Richards went down with an injury and the Stars faded fast. Now they seem to have righted the ship and recently moved from a sub-8 position to 4th place, only to drop down to 6th when they were leapfrogged in a loss to the Kings. The best thing the Stars can do is to ignore the standings and keep playing their game. With the proximity of temas in the Conference, positions in the standings are likely to swap several times a night, and the Stars seem to have found their game recently. If they can keep this going, they should have a playoff berth, but the seed could be anywhere from 3rd to 8th. They have 6 remaining home games, and 7 remaining games against divisional opponents, including a road trip that hits each divisional rival city once. This could be a huge factor in who makes the playoffs, and what seeds they get, as each of these five teams jostles for not only a playoff spot, but the division title.
Key games: 3/15 vs San Jose, 3/17 vs Chicago, 3/10 vs Philadelphia, 3/23 vs Anaheim, 3/26 @ Nashville, 3/29 @ Phoenix, 3/31 @ San Jose, 4/2 @ Los Angeles, 4/3 @ Anaheim, 4/5 vs Columbus, 4/10 @ Minnesota

7. Chicago Blackhawks (82, 13, NR Loss, 7-1-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
After a strong run that included and 8-game winning streak and a rise to 4th place, the Blackhawks find themselves back in 7th and only 2 points ahead of 9th place less than a week later. Just goes to show how tight this playoff race is. The Blackhawks have turned it on at the right time, led by young Captain Jonathan Toews. Toews is the hottest player in the league right now; he has 12 goals and 31 points in his last 20 games, and yesterday tied his career high of 69 points with 13 games to go in the season. Corey Crawford has been a surprise in net this year, but the rookie has been worked heavily lately, which could work against the Hawks should they make the playoffs, but that didn't seem to phase Antti Niemi much last year. If the Hawks continue their recent surge, they could have home-ice advatadge in the first round. 6 of their remaining 13 games are at home in front of fans hungry for a Cup repeat. They have 3 games reamining against division-leading rival Detroit.
Key games: 3/14 vs San Jose, 3/17 @ Dallas, 3/20 @ Phoenix, 3/26 vs Anaheim, 3/28 @ Detroit, 3/29 @ Boston, 4/1 @ Columbus, 4/3 vs Tampa Bay, 4/5 @ Montreal, 4/8 @ Detroit, 4/10 vs Detroit

8. Calgary Flames (81, 11, Lost 2, 5-4-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
The Flames crawled out from the depths of the Western Conference with an impressive streak over the past few months, but have cooled off a bit recently and are only in 8th place by 1 point. They will need to keep the fire of the last two months alive if they want to keep their newfound playoff spot. They have strong defense and goaltending as well as a decent offense and have all the tools they need to win games. As long as they don't burn out from their long climb into the top 8, they should make the playoffs, where they could be very dangeous. They still have 5 home games and 6 road games to play. The biggest thing working against them now is that they only have 11 games left in a Conference where you need all the points you can get.
Key games: 3/15 vs Phoenix, 3/20 @ Anaheim, 3/21 @ Los Angeles, 3/23 @ San Jose, 3/30 vs Anaheim, 4/9 vs Vancouver

9. Nashville Predators (80, 13, Won 2, 4-4-2)
playoffs: in the hunt
After slipping a bit, the Predators are starting to string a few wins together and currently sit 1 point out of 8th place. Barry Trotz is a great coach, and always manages to get a solid seasonal performance out of a mediocre roster. There is definitely some talent on the Predators, but there are no huge superstar names that jump out at you, and the Predators will need to keep their team effort strong if they are to make the playoffs. They look to be in good shape, but as is the case with every team it seems right now, they will need to play their best hockey of they year in this final stretch. One huge advantadge lays in favor of the Predators for this final stretch: they are a better home team, and 10 of their remaining 13 games are in Nashville, and the only three road games are against the hot-but-beatable Sabres, the pitiful Avalanche, and the fading Blues. With this good of a schedule remaining, the Predators may have a leg up on their large pack of competition. If they do make the playoffs, don't expect them to go very far.
Key games: 3/15 vs Los Angeles, 3/17 vs Boston, 3/19 vs Detroit, 3/20 @ Buffalo, 3/24 vs Anaheim, 3/26 vs Dallas, 3/29 vs Vancouver, 3/2 vs Detroit, 3/8 vs Columbus

10. Anaheim Ducks (79, 13, Lost 1, 5-4-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
After strong consistent play for a while, the Ducks have cooled off slightly, but are still in good shape with only a 2-point margin between them and the 8th spot. They are currently the only Pacific Division team not in a playoff spot, but just one win would tie them with Clagary for 8th place. The looming question mark that remains is still Jonas Hiller. If he can get healthy, the Ducks have a much better shot at putting together a goodenough run to claim a playoff berth, and perhaps even go deep into the postseason. But with a tandem of notoriously inconsistent goaltenders in Ray Emery and Dan Ellis as well as a blue line that is more skilled offensively than defensively, the Ducks will need to focus on playing good team defense and back-checking if they are to keep winning games. They are a better home team and have 6 of 13 games remaining in Anaheim. 7 remaining games are against divisional opponents: 3 against the Kings, and two apiece against the Sharks and Stars. When all five teams in your division are in contention, this frequency of divisional matchup could make or break the Ducks. If they win enough of these games, they could find themselves not only making the playoffs, but taken home-ice advantadge by stealing the 3rd seed as the Pacific Division champs.
Key games: 3/19 @ Los Angeles, 3/20 vs Calgary, 3/23 @ Dallas, 3/24 @ Nashville, 3/26 @ Chicago, 3/30 @ Calgary, 4/2 @ San Jose, 4/3 vs Dallas, 4/6 vs San Jose, 4/8 vs Los Angeles, 4/9 @ Los Angeles

11. Minnesota Wild (77, 13, Lost 2, 4-5-1)
playoffs: in the hunt
Though in 11th, the Wild are only 4 points out of 8th place right now. As with any team from their spot all the way up to 3rd place, they have a great shot at making the playoffs, but walk, or rather skate, a razor's edge from now until all 1230 games are in the books. They have struggled of late, and need to turn that around immediately if they want to stay alive. There are far too many teams in contention to have even the tiniest slip this late in the game, and the Wild may have already dug themselves into too deep of a hole with their recent skid. They are not a strong scoring team, yet have one of the best power plays in the league. Generally a defensively-minded team, they are strong on the back end and have a solid goaltender in Niklas Backstron. If they can be more dangerous when playing even strength, they could be a formidable opponent for any team. But if they keep losing games, they will miss out on the playoffs. They have 7 games left at the Xcel energy Center and 6 games elsewhere. With 2 games apiece remaining against Edmonton and St. Louis as well as 2 games against Vancouver, the Wild have a very up and down schedule remaining.
Key games: 3/14 @ Vancouver, 3/17 @ San Jose, 3/19 vs Columbus, 3/20 vs Montreal, 3/22 vs Toronto, 4/2 vs Tampa Bay, 4/3 @ Detroit, 4/7 @ Vancouver, 4/10 vs Dallas

12. Columbus Blue Jackets (73, 14, Won 1, 3-4-3)
playoffs: in the hunt, likely won't make it
The Blue Jackets made a great run over the past few months, but try as they might, they just couldn't get much ground on the huge pack of teams vying for a playoff berth. Now they appear burnt out, and they are dropping too many games to keep their playoff dreams alive. If they win out most of their remaining games, they still have a chance, but the odds are not very good. They made some good deadline pickups this season, and if they add one more steady defender and some scoring touch to take the load off of Rick Nash, they should have a good enough team to finally make the playoffs next year. They have 8 home games and 6 road games remaining.
Key games: 3/15 vs Boston, 3/17 vs Detroit, 3/19 @ Minnesota, 3/20 vs New Jersey, 3/24 @ Phoenix, 3/27 vs Vancouver, 3/31 @ Washington, 4/1 vs Chicago, 4/5 @ Dallas, 4/8 @ Nashville, 4/9 vs Buffalo

13. St. Louis Blues (71, 13, Lost 1, 4-6-0)
playoffs: out
A 10-point margin between the Blues and 8th place is not insurmountable, but with only 11 games remaining, poor play of late, and an historic logjam in their Conference (of which only 2 remaining opponents are not a part), I think it's safe to say the Blues will not make the playoffs this year. Still, stranger things have happened. They have a promising organization, that looked like a pretty good team at the start of the year. Unfortunately, injuries took their toll and performance dropped. The lack of some key players exposed a serious hole in secondary scoring as well as team defense. There are many key pieces in place for next season, and Chris Stewart looks to emerge as an elite scoring power forward. However, the loss of minute-eating defensemen Eric Brewer and Erik Johnson puts a straing on their remaining D and goaltending. They should look to add some strong defensmen and a little more scoring punch up front in the off-season. If their lackluster performance continues through their remaining 11 games, they will end up with a top 5 draft pick. If they keep this pick, Colorado will get their 1st-rounder next year. If they don't, Colorado will get 2 top 5 picks this year. A better home team, the Blues have 5 left in St. Louis, and 6 left on the road.

14. Colorado Avalanche (60, 14, Lost 4, 1-8-1)
playoffs: out
The Avalanche are in the midst of one of the most impressively horrible streaks in recent memory. They are 2-18-2 in their last 22 games, and have not won more than one game in a row since their 2 stariaght victories on January 14 and 18. They have enough youthful talent to surprise next season, much like they did last year. But as of now, a season which started with lots of promise has turned into an extreme failure in the past few months. The Avalanche showed they are not afraid to shake up the organization when they traded Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk to the Blues, and will likely to continue with this radical rebuilding route in the offseason. But now, they at least have a top 5 draft choice, potentially a #1, because although Ottawa and Edmonton are still behind them at the moment, their plummeting performance and barely discernable vital signs indicate a definite possibility of finishing dead last this season.

15. Edmonton Oilers (55, 12, Lost 1, 4-5-1)
playoffs: out
The Edmonton Oilers find themselves in familiar territory as this season draws to a close. They will have a top 5 draft pick, potentially a 2nd straight #1. They have many promising young faces coming into the organization and are ready for the rebuilding to continue in the offseason. They have been showing some signs of life lately and may jump out of last place in the league.

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