Saturday, April 4, 2015

NHL 2014-15 Stretch Run - 8 days remaining

It’s sure to be a crazy finish to the 2014-15 NHL season. With one week to go, the standings are still wide open. Only 7 teams have clinched playoff berths so far and only 8 have been eliminated. That leaves 15 teams battling it out for the remaining 9 postseason tickets. Meanwhile, the fight for the bottom of the league is also intriguing with so much hype around the upcoming entry draft. There are many charts out there detailing the standings and the remaining playoff and draft position races, but they can be a little intimidating to look at and difficult to grasp. Below, I have done my best to separate each team so that you can look at them individually and understand their particular scenarios. I will continue to update daily until the season ends on April 11 (may miss tomorrow because of Easter). All postings are written before the day’s games have begun. Visit NHL.com for more info.

Three teams can clinch postseason berths today: Canucks, Islanders, and Capitals.

First off, a little info about how the postseason berths, matchups, and draft order work this season for those who are unfamiliar:
Playoffs:
8 teams make the postseason in each conference (there are 16 teams in the East, 14 in the West). The top three teams in each division make the playoffs, plus the next two best teams in the conference standings. These two are the Wild Card teams. The three divisional teams are seeded 1-3 based on the standings. In each conference, the better of the two division winners hosts the 2nd wild card in the first round, while the top wild card visits the other division winner. The remaining matchups are within each division, with the 2nd divisional seed hosting the 3rd.
Draft:
For the most part, the draft order is based on the reverse of the standings, with a few exceptions. The 14 teams that miss the playoffs are entered into the draft lottery, which for this season affects only the first overall pick. The lower the finish, the greater the chance of winning the top pick. The probabilities are listed at the bottom of this post. For the remaining rounds, the draft positions revert to the reverse standings. For the teams that make the playoffs, the draft positions are a little different based on performance. The four teams that reach the conference finals receive the bottom four picks (#27-30). The remaining 12 get picks #15-26 in reverse standings order. The Stanley Cup champion gets the #30 draft position, the Stanley Cup runner-up gets #29, and the remaining two conference finalists get #27 and #28 in reverse standings order.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

PACFIC DIVISION
ANAHEIM DUCKS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth and Pacific
Current position: 1st Pacific
Points: 107
Games Left: 2
Possible Finishes: 1st Pacific (chance at 1st West, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: Ducks
Game Today: None

ARIZONA COYOTES
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 29th NHL
Points: 54
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: #1-#3 draft position
1st Round Picks: Coyotes, Blackhawks
Game Today: vs. Sharks

CALGARY FLAMES
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Pacific
Points: 91
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 2nd Pacific, 3rd Pacific, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #9-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Flames
Game Today: at Oilers

EDMONTON OILERS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 28th NHL
Points: 59
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: #1-#4 draft position
1st Round Picks: Oilers, Penguins
Game Today: vs. Flames

LOS ANGELES KINGS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 2nd Wild Card
Points: 90
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: 2nd Pacific, 3rd Pacific, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #9-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Kings
Game Today: vs. Avalanche

SAN JOSE SHARKS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 4th Wild Card
Points: 87
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 2nd Wild Card, #7-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Sharks
Game Today: at Coyotes

VANCOUVER
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 2nd Pacific
Points: 95
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 2nd Pacific, 3rd Pacific, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Canucks
Game Today: at Jets


CENTRAL DIVISION
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 3rd in Central
Points: 102
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 1st Central, 2nd Central, 3rd Central, 1st Wild Card (chance at 1st West, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: None
Game Today: None

COLORADO AVALANCHE
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 6th Wild Card
Points: 84
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 2nd Wild Card, #6-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Avalanche
Game Today: at Kings

DALLAS STARS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 5th Wild Card
Points: 84
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 2nd Wild Card, #6-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Stars
Game Today: at Predators

MINNESOTA WILD
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 1st Wild Card
Points: 95
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: 1st Central, 2nd Central, 3rd Central, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Wild
Game Today: vs. Red Wings

NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 1st Central
Points: 103
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 1st Central, 2nd Central, 3rd Central, 1st Wild Card (chance at 1st West, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: None
Game Today: vs. Stars

ST. LOUIS BLUES
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 2nd Central
Points: 103
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 1st Central, 2nd Central, 3rd Central, 1st Wild Card (chance at 1st West, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: None
Game Today: None

WINNIPEG JETS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Wild Card
Points: 90
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #8-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Jets
Game Today: vs. Canucks


EASTERN CONFERENCE

ATLANTIC DIVISION
BOSTON BRUINS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 2nd Wild Card
Points: 93
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 3rd Atlantic, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #11-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Bruins
Game Today: vs. Maple Leafs

BUFFALO SABRES
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 30th NHL
Points: 52
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: #1-#3 draft position
1st Round Picks: Sabres, Islanders, Blues
Game Today: at Islanders

DETROIT RED WINGS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Atlantic
Points: 93
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: 3rd Atlantic, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #11-#14
1st Round Picks: Red Wings
Game Today: at Wild

FLORIDA PANTHERS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 4th Wild Card
Points: 87
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 3rd Atlantic, 2nd Wild Card, #7-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Panthers
Game Today: vs. Lightning

MONTREAL CANADIENS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 1st Atlantic
Points: 104
Games Left: 3
Possible Finishes: 1st Atlantic, 2nd Atlantic
1st Round Picks: Canadiens
Game Today: None

OTTAWA SENATORS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Wild Card
Points: 90
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: 3rd Atlantic, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #8-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Senators
Game Today: vs. Capitals

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 2nd Atlantic
Points: 102
Games Left: 3
Possible Finishes: 1st Atlantic, 2nd Atlantic
1st Round Picks: Rangers
Game Today: at Panthers

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 27th NHL
Points: 64
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: #3-#5 draft position
1st Round Picks: Maple Leafs, Predators
Game Today: at Bruins


METROPOLITAN DIVISION
CAROLINA HURRICANES
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 26th NHL
Points: 67
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: #4-#6 draft position
1st Round Picks: Hurricanes
Game Today: vs. Flyers

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 23rd NHL
Points: 80
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: #6-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Blue Jackets
Game Today: vs. Penguins

NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 25th NHL
Points: 77
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: #5-#10 draft position
1st Round Picks: Devils
Game Today: at Rangers

NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Metropolitan
Points: 96
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 2nd Metropolitan, 3rd Metropolitan, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: None
Game Today: vs. Sabres

NEW YORK RANGERS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth and Metropolitan
Current position: 1st Metropolitan
Points: 105
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: 1st Metropolitan (chance at 1st East, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: None
Game Today: vs. Devils

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 24th NHL
Points: 79
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: #6-#12 draft position
1st Round Picks: Flyers, Lightning
Game Today: at Hurricanes

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 1st Wild Card
Points: 95
Games Left: 5
Possible Finishes: 2nd Metropolitan, 3rd Metropolitan, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #12-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: None
Game Today: at Blue Jackets

WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 2nd Metropolitan
Points: 96
Games Left: 4
Possible Finishes: 2nd Metropolitan, 3rd Metropolitan, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Capitals
Game Today: at Senators



DRAFT LOTTERY PROBABILITIES
#1 position (30th NHL) – 20%
#2 position (29th NHL) – 13.5%
#3 position (28th NHL) – 11.5%
#4 position (27th NHL) – 9.5%
#5 position (26th NHL) – 8.5%
#6 position (25th NHL) – 7.5%
#7 position (24th NHL) – 6.5%
#8 position (23rd NHL) – 6%
#9 position (22nd NHL) – 5%
#10 position (21st NHL) – 3.5%
#11 position (20th NHL) – 3%
#12 position (19th NHL) – 2.5%
#13 position (18th NHL) – 2%

#14 position (17th NHL) – 1%

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