Monday, April 6, 2015

NHL Stretch Run - 6 Days Remaining

It’s sure to be a crazy finish to the 2014-15 NHL season. With six days to go, the standings are still wide open. Only 8 teams have clinched playoff berths so far and only 10 have been eliminated. That leaves 12 teams battling it out for the remaining 8 postseason tickets. Meanwhile, the fight for the bottom of the league is also intriguing with so much hype around the upcoming entry draft. There are many charts out there detailing the standings and the remaining playoff and draft position races, but they can be a little intimidating to look at and difficult to grasp. Below, I have done my best to separate each team so that you can look at them individually and understand their particular scenarios. I will continue to update daily until the season ends on April 11. All postings are written before the day’s games have begun.

First off, a little info about how the postseason berths, matchups, and draft order work this season for those who are unfamiliar:
Playoffs:
8 teams make the postseason in each conference (there are 16 teams in the East, 14 in the West). The top three teams in each division make the playoffs, plus the next two best teams in the conference standings. These two are the Wild Card teams. The three divisional teams are seeded 1-3 based on the standings. In each conference, the better of the two division winners hosts the 2nd wild card in the first round, while the top wild card visits the other division winner. The remaining matchups are within each division, with the 2nd divisional seed hosting the 3rd.
Draft:
For the most part, the draft order is based on the reverse of the standings, with a few exceptions. The 14 teams that miss the playoffs are entered into the draft lottery, which for this season affects only the first overall pick. The lower the finish, the greater the chance of winning the top pick. The probabilities are below. For the remaining rounds, the draft positions revert to the reverse standings. For the teams that make the playoffs, the draft positions are a little different based on performance. The four teams that reach the conference finals receive the bottom four picks (#27-30). The remaining 12 get picks #15-26 in reverse standings order. The Stanley Cup champion gets the #30 draft position, the Stanley Cup runner-up gets #29, and the remaining two conference finalists get #27 and #28 in reverse standings order.


DRAFT LOTTERY PROBABILITIES
#1 position (30th NHL) – 20%
#2 position (29th NHL) – 13.5%
#3 position (28th NHL) – 11.5%
#4 position (27th NHL) – 9.5%
#5 position (26th NHL) – 8.5%
#6 position (25th NHL) – 7.5%
#7 position (24th NHL) – 6.5%
#8 position (23rd NHL) – 6%
#9 position (22nd NHL) – 5%
#10 position (21st NHL) – 3.5%
#11 position (20th NHL) – 3%
#12 position (19th NHL) – 2.5%
#13 position (18th NHL) – 2%
#14 position (17th NHL) – 1%


WESTERN CONFERENCE

PACFIC DIVISION
ANAHEIM DUCKS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth and Pacific
Current position: 1st Pacific
Points: 107
Games Left: 2. Wed vs. Stars, Sat at Coyotes
Possible Finishes: 1st Pacific (chance at 1st West, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: Ducks

ARIZONA COYOTES
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 29th NHL
Points: 56
Games Left: 3. Tue at Flames, Thu at Canucks, Sat vs. Ducks
Possible Finishes: #1-#3 draft position
1st Round Picks: Coyotes, Blackhawks

CALGARY FLAMES
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Pacific
Points: 93
Games Left: 3. Tue vs. Coyotes, Thu vs. Kings, Sat at Jets
Possible Finishes: 2nd Pacific, 3rd Pacific, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Flames

EDMONTON OILERS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 28th NHL
Points: 59
Games Left: 3. Tue vs. Kings, Thu vs. Sharks, Sat at Canucks
Possible Finishes: #2-#3 draft position
1st Round Picks: Oilers, Penguins

LOS ANGELES KINGS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 2nd Wild Card
Points: 92
Games Left: 4. Mon at Canucks, Tue at Oilers, Thu at Flames, Sat vs. Sharks
Possible Finishes: 2nd Pacific, 3rd Pacific, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #10-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Kings


SAN JOSE SHARKS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 4th Wild Card
Points: 87
Games Left: 3. Mon vs. Stars, Thu at Oilers, Sat at Kings
Possible Finishes: 2nd Wild Card, #8-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Sharks

VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 2nd Pacific
Points: 95
Games Left: 3. Mon vs Kings, Thu vs. Coyotes, Sat vs Oilers
Possible Finishes: 2nd Pacific, 3rd Pacific, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Canucks


CENTRAL DIVISION
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 3rd in Central
Points: 102
Games Left: 3. Tue vs. Blackhawks, Thu at Blues, Sat at Avalanche
Possible Finishes: 1st Central, 2nd Central, 3rd Central, 1st Wild Card (chance at 1st West, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: None

COLORADO AVALANCHE
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 22nd NHL
Points: 84
Games Left: 3. Tue vs. Predators, Thu vs. Jets, Sat vs. Blackhawks
Possible Finishes: #7-#12 draft position
1st Round Picks: Avalanche

DALLAS STARS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 5th Wild Card
Points: 86
Games Left: 3. Mon at Sharks, Wed at Ducks, Sat vs. Predators
Possible Finishes: 2nd Wild Card, #7-#13 draft position
1st Round Picks: Stars

MINNESOTA WILD
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 1st Wild Card
Points: 96
Games Left: 4. Mon vs. Jets, Tue at Blackhawks, Thu at Predators, Sat at Blues
Possible Finishes: 2nd Central, 3rd Central, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Wild

NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 2nd Central
Points: 104
Games Left: 3. Tue at Avalanche, Thu vs. Wild, Sat at Stars
Possible Finishes: 1st Central, 2nd Central, 3rd Central, 1st Wild Card (chance at 1st West, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: None

ST. LOUIS BLUES
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 1st Central
Points: 105
Games Left: 3. Tue vs. Jets, Thu vs. Blackhawks, Sat vs. Wild
Possible Finishes: 1st Central, 2nd Central, 3rd Central (chance at 1st West, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: None

WINNIPEG JETS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Wild Card
Points: 92
Games Left: 4. Mon at Wild, Tue at Blues, Thu at Avalanche, Sat vs. Flames
Possible Finishes: 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #10-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Jets




EASTERN CONFERENCE

ATLANTIC DIVISION
BOSTON BRUINS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Atlantic
Points: 95
Games Left: 3. Wed at Capitals, Thu at Panthers, Sat at Lightning
Possible Finishes: 3rd Atlantic, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Bruins

BUFFALO SABRES
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 30th NHL
Points: 52
Games Left: 3. Mon vs. Hurricanes, Fri at Blue Jackets, Sat vs. Penguins
Possible Finishes: #1-#2 draft position
1st Round Picks: Sabres, Islanders, Blues

DETROIT RED WINGS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 2nd Wild Card
Points: 95
Games Left: 3. Tue vs. Hurricanes, Thu at Canadiens, Sat at Hurricanes
Possible Finishes: 3rd Atlantic, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14
1st Round Picks: Red Wings

FLORIDA PANTHERS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 20th NHL
Points: 87
Games Left: 2. Thu vs. Bruins, Sat vs. Devils
Possible Finishes: #7-#12 draft position
1st Round Picks: Panthers

MONTREAL CANADIENS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 1st Atlantic
Points: 106
Games Left: 2. Thu vs. Red Wings. Sat at Maple Leafs
Possible Finishes: 1st Atlantic, 2nd Atlantic
1st Round Picks: Canadiens

OTTAWA SENATORS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Wild Card
Points: 93
Games Left: 3. Tue vs. Penguins, Thu at Rangers, Sat at Flyers
Possible Finishes: 3rd Atlantic, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #12-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: Senators

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 2nd Atlantic
Points: 104
Games Left: 2. Thu vs. Devils, Sat vs. Bruins
Possible Finishes: 1st Atlantic, 2nd Atlantic
1st Round Picks: Rangers

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 27th NHL
Points: 67
Games Left: 2. Wed at Blue Jackets, Sat vs. Canadiens
Possible Finishes: #4-#5 draft position
1st Round Picks: Maple Leafs, Predators



METROPOLITAN DIVISION
CAROLINA HURRICANES
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 26th NHL
Points: 69
Games Left: 4. Mon at Sabres, Tue at Red Wings, Thu at Flyers, Sat vs. Red Wings
Possible Finishes: #4-#6 draft position
1st Round Picks: Hurricanes

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 23rd NHL
Points: 82
Games Left: 4. Mon at Rangers, Wed vs. Maple Leafs, Fri vs. Sabres, Sat at Islanders
Possible Finishes: #6-#12 draft position
1st Round Picks: Blue Jackets

NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 25th NHL
Points: 77
Games Left: 3. Tue vs. Rangers, Thu at Lightning, Sat at Panthers
Possible Finishes: #5-#8 draft position
1st Round Picks: Devils

NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 3rd Metropolitan
Points: 98
Games Left: 3. Tue at Flyers, Fri at Penguins, Sat vs. Blue Jackets
Possible Finishes: 2nd Metropolitan, 3rd Metropolitan, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #13-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: None

NEW YORK RANGERS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth and Metropolitan
Current position: 1st Metropolitan
Points: 107
Games Left: 4. Mon vs. Blue Jackets, Tue at Devils, Thu vs. Senators, Sat at Capitals
Possible Finishes: 1st Metropolitan (chance at 1st East, 1st NHL)
1st Round Picks: None

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Playoff Status: Eliminated
Current position: 24th NHL
Points: 82
Games Left: 3. Tue vs. Islanders, Thu vs. Hurricanes, Sat vs. Senators
Possible Finishes: #6-#12 draft position
1st Round Picks: Flyers, Lightning

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Playoff Status: In the hunt
Current position: 1st Wild Card
Points: 95
Games Left: 3. Tue at Senators, Fri vs. Islanders, Sat at Sabres
Possible Finishes: 2nd Metropolitan, 3rd Metropolitan, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card, #12-#14 draft position
1st Round Picks: None

WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Playoff Status: Clinched berth
Current position: 2nd Metropolitan
Points: 99
Games Left: 2. Wed vs. Bruins, Sat vs. Rangers
Possible Finishes: 2nd Metropolitan, 3rd Metropolitan, 1st Wild Card, 2nd Wild Card
1st Round Picks: Capitals



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